Economic outlook..........

JohnnyBz00LS

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Posted on Fri, Jan. 27, 2006

GM suffers $8.6 billion loss for ’05
Worst slump since ’92; stock falls

By Dee-Ann Durbin
Associated Press

DETROIT – General Motors Corp. posted its largest annual loss in more than a decade, laying bare the problems the automaker is facing: rising labor costs, fierce competition from Asia and falling sales at home.

It was another blow for the U.S. auto industry, already reeling from massive job cuts announced this week by Ford Motor Co.
GM, which could lose its position as the world’s largest automaker this year to Toyota Motor Corp., said Thursday it lost $4.8 billion in the fourth quarter and $8.6 billion for all of 2005. That was the worst showing since 1992, when it lost $23.5 billion.

Sales gains in Asia, Europe and elsewhere were more than offset by huge losses in North America, where GM lost $5.6 billion for the year.
Company executives insist the results will improve in 2006, but GM shares slumped as concerned investors wondered whether the company can win customers and extract sufficiently large concessions from its unions to stop the financial nosedive.

“It was surprisingly negative, well below the low end of the most pessimistic analysts, which is no small feat,” said Pete Hastings, vice president of corporate fixed income at the investment firm Morgan Keegan & Co. “I think you’ll see recovery off of 2005. But getting back to profitability in North American operations is a multiyear challenge.”

The company lost $15.13 per share for the year, far more than Wall Street’s forecast of a loss of $4.19 per share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Worldwide revenue of $192.6 billion for the full year was down slightly from 2004.

GM shares, already down 36 percent since July, fell 80 cents, or 3.4 percent, to close at $23.05 Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange. Moody’s Investors Service said it was reviewing GM’s credit rating, already in “junk” territory, and could downgrade it further.

“Two significant fundamental weaknesses in our North American operations were fully exposed – our huge legacy cost burden and our inability to adjust structural costs in line with falling revenue,” said GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner. He described 2005 as “one of the most difficult years in GM’s history.”

Amid the gloom surrounding the fate of the automaker there might be one bright spot. Automotive News, a trade publication, reported this week that GM expects to announce an expansion worth about $35 million at the Allen County plant when an executive from Detroit visits it Tuesday.
Dan Flores, a GM spokesman, said the company was still studying whether it would expand local operations, but he confirmed that Joseph Spielman, vice president and general manager of manufacturing in North America, is scheduled to be in Fort Wayne on Tuesday. The study is exploring whether materials and parts sequencing for the next generation of GMC Sierra and Chevy Silverado should be brought in-house to Fort Wayne Assembly. Flores added that if approved, the expansion would create a little more than 100 jobs that would be filled by workers transferring from other plants. The plant on Lafayette Center Road is preparing to produce the next generation of the full-size pickup trucks in the fourth quarter.

GM shares enjoyed a brief runup late Wednesday after billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian disclosed that he had reacquired 12 million shares of GM stock he sold in December. Analysts said the move suggested he had confidence in the company’s recovery efforts, but Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy told investors that while Kerkorian’s presence will ratchet up pressure on GM’s management, “we believe things will get worse before they get better.”
A spokeswoman for Tracinda Corp., Kerkorian’s private equity firm, wouldn’t comment Thursday on GM’s stock slide.

Wagoner and other executives said they will move forward with GM’s turnaround plan, which calls for eliminating 30,000 jobs and closing 12 facilities by 2008. GM anticipates stronger sales this year because of its new lineup of sport utility vehicles and trucks, and it’s abandoning costly, confusing incentives in favor of lower prices on most vehicles.
But some analysts doubt GM’s new lineup of trucks and SUVs will do well, particularly if gasoline prices rise. Shelly Lombard, a senior analyst at the corporate bond research firm Gimme Credit, pointed out that SUV sales fell 42 percent in the fourth quarter.

GM also forecast that it will save $4 billion in structural costs this year, primarily because of a health care deal with the United Auto Workers.
“We do expect improved financial results in 2006 and 2007,” GM Chief Financial Officer Frederick “Fritz” Henderson said. “There’s really no other choice.”

But Henderson acknowledged that GM expects to pay between $3.6 billion and $12 billion to settle retiree obligations at Delphi Corp., its former parts division that filed for bankruptcy last year. GM took a pretax charge of $3.6 billion in 2005, indicating a deal between Delphi, GM and the UAW could be near.

GM’s own turnaround also will take a heavy financial toll. GM spent $1.3 billion on restructuring in 2005, most of which went to employees laid off after plant closures. Under GM’s current contract with the UAW, laid-off hourly workers will continue to receive most of their pay and benefits through 2007, when the contract expires.

Henderson wouldn’t say how many workers will get those benefits. GM said it’s talking to the UAW about an attrition program that could reduce the total. GM also could try to eliminate that perk when it negotiates a new contract with the UAW, but UAW President Ron Gettelfinger said this month that the union will fight to keep it.

UAW spokesman Paul Krell said Thursday that the union had no comment on GM’s results.

GM sold 9.2 million vehicles worldwide in 2005, the second-largest volume in the company’s history. By contrast, Toyota produced 7.4 million vehicles in 2005 and plans to make 9.06 million this year.

GM set sales records in Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Mideast, and Chevrolet snatched the crown for America’s best-selling brand from Ford. But North American losses overwhelmed those gains, and GM’s worldwide market share was down slightly, to 14.2 percent from 14.4 percent in 2004.
GM’s financial arm, General Motors Acceptance Corp., earned $2.8 billion in 2005, down 3 percent from record earnings of $2.9 billion in 2004.
Wagoner said GMAC’s 2005 results were solid considering its debt was lowered to “junk” status in the spring, making it harder for the division to borrow money. GM is considering the sale of a controlling interest in GMAC this year but gave no update on the progress of those talks. A sale would shore up the division’s credit rating but hurt GM’s profits. The automaker collected a dividend of $2.5 billion from GMAC in 2005.

GM’s results come three days after Ford announced a profit of $2 billion for 2005. But Ford also struggled in its home market, losing $1.6 billion in North America, and announced a plan to cut 30,000 jobs and close 14 facilities by 2012.

GM and Ford could see little help from Washington. President Bush, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published Thursday, said he hadn’t been approached about a bailout for GM or Ford Motor Co. but might not support one if he was.

“I think it’s very important for the market to function,” Bush said. He said companies need to manufacture “a product that’s relevant” and that his administration has discussed new fuel technologies with the nation’s top two automakers.

Michigan’s Democratic senators shot back Thursday, saying automakers want fair trade policies, not a bailout. Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow said foreign competitors don’t face the same high pension and health care costs and are protected by trade barriers and currency manipulation.
 
Posted on Fri, Jan. 27, 2006

Analysts: Deficits to keep rising
Red ink may soon hit $400 billion
By Andrew Taylor
Associated Press

WASHINGTON – The budget deficit will rise to at least $337 billion this year and may approach or exceed $400 billion because of tax cuts and new spending for hurricane relief and the war in Iraq, congressional budget analysts said Thursday.

The latest Congressional Budget Office data also suggest President Bush is unlikely to be able to keep his promise to cut the federal deficit in half by the end of his term.

Even assuming a phasing down of the war in Iraq and the costs of hurricane relief, implementing tax cuts sought by Bush and Congress would produce deficits exceeding $300 billion through the end of the decade, the non-partisan CBO says.

The report and Bush’s annual budget submission kick off a predictably partisan election-year debate over the budget, which will play out against the backdrop of rising deficits, record spending and renewed concern about lawmakers’ penchant for homestate pet projects.

Bush promised in 2004 to close the deficit from a then-estimate of $521 billion to $260 billion by 2009, and he promised again Thursday to meet that goal when he sends an austere fiscal 2007 budget to Congress on Feb. 6.
“We can cut our deficit in half by 2009 and make sure the American people still get their tax relief,” Bush told reporters.

Bush critics say he routinely plays games with the budget by leaving out the long-term costs of the war in Iraq and redrawing the tax code so more and more middle-class taxpayers won’t get hit by the alternative minimum tax. Congress typically rejects most of his proposals for benefit cuts and new fees.
Even though CBO must follow rules that mean its official estimate is flawed – by reflecting current law even when future changes to the budget are virtually certain to be passed – its data are respected for impartiality.
CBO’s official baseline shows the deficit dropping to $241 billion by 2009 and $114 billion by 2011.

But those estimates assume Bush’s tax cuts expire and the alternative minimum tax is left alone. That tax, designed to stop the wealthy from avoiding all taxation, threatens more middle class taxpayers every year because of inflation.

Under a more realistic scenario, extending tax relief, drawing down troop levels in Iraq, and phasing out hurricane relief, CBO predicts a $332 billion deficit for 2009, the last fiscal year for which Bush is responsible.
For its part, the White House reiterated Thursday that it thinks the 2006 deficit would actually top $400 billion because of the costs of tax cuts, the war in Iraq and new hurricane relief.

“This administration is driving us over the cliff into deeper and deeper debt,” said Kent Conrad of North Dakota, the Senate Budget Committee’s top Democrat.

According to the CBO report, the expiration of Bush’s tax cuts would return the budget to a surplus of $38 billion by 2012. Keeping his tax cuts in place would put the government into a $289 billion deficit that year, but Bush rejected any talk of letting his tax cuts lapse at the end of the decade as currently scheduled.

“We don’t need to be running up the taxes right now,” Bush said Thursday. “You know, people say, ‘Well, let’s raise the taxes and balance the budget’ – that’s not how it works; they’re going to raise your taxes, and they’re going to continue to expand the government.”

The government recorded a $319 billion deficit for 2005. The record deficit in dollar terms of $413 billion was registered in fiscal 2004.
Economists say the more significant measure is against the size of the economy. In those terms, CBO’s 2006 deficit prediction would equal 2.6 percent of gross domestic product and would be significantly better than deficits witnessed in the mid-1980s and early 1990s. Then, deficits of 4 percent to 6 percent of GDP were common.

On the economy, CBO predicts continued robust growth of 3.6 percent this year and 3.4 percent next year, slowing to an average of 3.1 percent over 2009-11.

With near-term deficit predictions going up, Republicans in Congress are feeling political heat from their core supporters, who say the party’s record of fiscal discipline is slipping.

Republicans are particularly upset about the proliferation of lawmakers’ pet projects under GOP control of Congress.

For instance, total spending on such “earmarks” hit $17 billion in the latest round of congressional appropriations bills, House Appropriations Committee tally says.

Deficit.jpg
 
1. GM: Quit selling crappy products
2. Congress, quit overspending. I've said this before.
 
fossten said:
1. GM: Quit selling crappy products
2. Congress, quit overspending. I've said this before.


Agreed, GM needs to clean up their act. I love my caddy, but the build quality is second rate compard to the 300E MB I used to drive.
 

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