Gerald Celente- trend Research

[Calabrio]

Has anyone else heard of Gerald Celente or his trend forecasts?
He's not what I'd call an optimist, but it's fascinating stuff.

Rather than posting video and then getting reaction to the video first, I'd like to see if anyone else if familiar with him?

 

[torquemonkey]

Having read your post, I am reading up on this fellow. Looks to be spot on with his assessments and I can see why you like him; He was born in the Bronx.

 

[Calabrio]

Having read your post, I am reading up on this fellow. Looks to be spot on with his assessments and I can see why you like him; He was born in the Bronx.

Have you gotten to the more recent forecasts yet?

 

[torquemonkey]

Yes, I had visited his website; http://www.trendsresearch.com/journal.html


From the website;

The Collapse of '09
The "Panic of '08" will be followed by "The Collapse of '09." In 2008, when the world's largest financial firms and equity markets crumbled, Wall Street's woes preoccupied the media. In 2009, the focus will broaden to include a range of calamities that will leave no sector unscathed.....


Obamarama
Setting aside the only major question that remains unanswered (when, or if, Obama makes Supreme Court selections, will they reflect the liberal beliefs of his supporters?), we see nothing coming from his administration that can prevent The Collapse of ’09, the Greatest Depression or the brewing Revolution. From these macro-developments, a number of other significant trends — some promising, some foreboding — will emerge, accelerate and intensify.....


The Revolution
It's unprecedented. There is nothing like it in the history of the United States. No week goes by without the Government buying into or buying up another failing "too big to fail" using taxpayer money. In the process, a super-race of corporate giants is being created that will be declared "too big to tumble." It is a matter of historical fact: When people are homeless, helpless, desperate, jobless and hungry, sooner or later they will rebel. And it won’t be any different in America.....


That's Entertainment
During the grim times of the Great Depression, arts and entertainment flourished, and with the repeal of Prohibition the good times rolled … and they’ll roll again. Lifting spirits, and drinking them, will be big businesses and major pastimes for both down-and-outs and the Uptown crowd during the Greatest Depression.....


~Watching growing trends being reported through MSNBC coincides with what the man has predicted. Outside of the "Revolution." Men will have to become very hungry to take up issues and/or causes to go against the establishment.

 

[fossten]

I bought Peter Schiff's book, and my wife and I are going to short the US economy and the US dollar.

 

[foxpaws]

So, just to keep things 'real' remember, this man is selling something - his Trends Research stuff.

And for every correct 'forecast' there are hundreds that he didn't get, and many he got just wrong....

It is sort of like a fortune teller - fun, but, if a fortune teller foresees 100 things happening - odds are they will hit a few correctly.

I personally like this quote.. and the man even posted it on his website...
If Nostradamus were alive today, he'd have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente. — New York Post

 

[torquemonkey]

I caught a bit Celente on a Glenn Beck video/sound bite. He has a great stage presence and is very engaging as a speaker. From what I had observed of Mr. Celente, his seminars must be a great spectacle to attend.

"Fortune telling," appears to fit well with "trend research." No person has demonstrated the ability to accurately forecast the future 100%. It appears to me that having freewill as a human makes definite outcomes murky at best.

Discerning the difference between a trend and fad early would make for more certain and profitable outcomes. Who knew that twitter would make one L.A. mobile Chef and his Korean Tacos, so famous? see- Kogi

I myself have more reading and thinking to do on this man and his thoughts.

 

[Calabrio]

So, just to keep things 'real' remember, this man is selling something - his Trends Research stuff.

Everyone's selling something.
But trying to sell bad news isn't usually a popular or wise business strategy, especially when it's contrary to the conventional wisdom.

In his defends, and keeping things "real", he's been following this trend for several years now. And doing so was supposed to have been bad business, because people didn't want to read it. There's interest now, but not for the last few years.

With any of these guys, economists, financial analysts, trend forecasters, or even those frauds called "psychics"- they always say they predicted major events, but it's rare you can ever actual find some media with them forecasting the event BEFORE it happens.

Anyone giving advice or insight now, I find myself dismissive of the ones who completely missed what was going on in the past. They completely missed the economic crisis we're in right now, but they act as though I'm supposed to believe them when they say "it's almost over" now? The same guy who said that housing had bottomed out in 2007, and then again in 2008, should be believed when he says it'll be over in 2010?

I saw Celente on TV making the statement, prepare for the worst and then move back from there.

And for every correct 'forecast' there are hundreds that he didn't get, and many he got just wrong....

There's certainly a lot of positive information about him on the web, where has he been completely wrong on a major set of events? I haven't been able to find the "Celente is Wrong" videos or websites. Those aren't usually posted. Are you just presuming that he's way off the mark or you actually have a history of him being way off base, foxpaws?

 

[Calabrio]

I bought Peter Schiff's book, and my wife and I are going to short the US economy and the US dollar.

Have you signed up for his weekly, sometimes twice a day, video blog on the website?

 

[Calabrio]

I'm searching the web looking for old forecasts or basically anything negative about him. Ideally, I'm trying to find older articles that are critical of him, because I'm seeing a lot of the liberal blogs simply attacking him because they are defensively perceiving his analysis as an attack on Obama.

Here's the one article I've found that's highly critical of him:
http://www.edrants.com/gerald-celente-futurist-fraud/
But while it starts out seemingly implying that he's often wrong or vague, the examples they list don't really support the claim.

And on a message forum, similar in format to this, I found a list of things he "predicted" in December, 2006. I believe these were written down while he was doing a phone interview "forecasting" 2007. Some right, some wrong, and some pretty close.

2007 Forecast:
Chinamerica
"It’s kind of like America in the 1950s – the entrepreneurial spirit, the boom time, the feeling that they can achieve anything – a Can Do attitude.

Conversely, in the United States, the situation is reversed. The Can Do spirit is gone. Entrepreneurism is very difficult to achieve in a society where the cost of entry into business is so high because of all of the government regulations and restrictions. It’s very hard for a small entrepreneur to get started without having almost $100,000, particularly in the retail field. So, it’s very hard to breakthrough.

Then again, you have a reversal of roles. In China today, they are encouraging the entrepreneurs who think for themselves to become what they can become. In America, what’s happened? Well, look at who gets the tax breaks. These aren’t matters of opinion. These are matters of fact. The top people get the tax breaks."

Systemic Recession
"So, we’re going to see a long-term recession that’s just going to keep eating away, eating away at the American consumer. It’s just how they are saying today: “Is there a civil war in Iraq?” Well, you don’t need them to tell you. You talk to the average person, they are in recession. They are borrowing money just to pay off their debt."

Internet Candidate
"People are looking for a new way and an internet candidate with an internet party, we believe is going to emerge in 2007, going into 2008. The difference with this campaign is: it’s not going to be about the personality. It’s going to be about the principals and facts and what the platform is. We think it is going to be the beginning of a third party movement in the United States."

Technotribalism
"We believe that the technotribalism is going to unite people in ways, via the computer, that we’ve never seen before. They are going to have a very strong voice in organizing and bringing people together to bring changes that they want: negative, positive, whatever the changes might be. They are going to be able to ally a lot of forces."

Re-United States
"Who in business would hire someone in politics to run their operation? They would insist on having somebody who is the most competent to do the job and the least political. We hire the most political and least competent to run the country. That’s the change we’re going to start seeing – competence over politics."

 

[torquemonkey]

What I have found;

http://blogs.computerworld.com/fox_news_obama_gloom
http://www.kylesainz.blogspot.com/

So far the only meat I have found in any form has been to question the methodology of how he crafts his predictions.

 

[fossten]

Have you signed up for his weekly, sometimes twice a day, video blog on the website?

I think my wife signed us up. We're getting ready to do some investing with his company.

 

[foxpaws]

Everyone's selling something.
But trying to sell bad news isn't usually a popular or wise business strategy, especially when it's contrary to the conventional wisdom.

In his defends, and keeping things "real", he's been following this trend for several years now. And doing so was supposed to have been bad business, because people didn't want to read it. There's interest now, but not for the last few years.

I think right now, being in the doom and gloom business is showing to be pretty good. Just look at the threads on this site - the right is picking doom and gloom constantly

Celente is just going with the current 'trend'. He follows trends - doom and gloom looks like a good 'sell' right now, so there he goes... Down the path of the sale.

He is a generalist usually.

However, he certainly didn't predict this market down turn did he? (No he didn't).

He didn't predict 9/11, the Iraqi war, the first black president. Heck, the list of what he 'didn't' predict is monumental.

What I look for when looking at the 'record' of these fortune tellers is not how much they got right, or even how many they got wrong - but how many did they miss entirely...

Celente missed a lot. And usually what is remembered, and drudged up are successes, failures are conveniently quickly forgotten.

Heck, even the dot.com turn down, which he says he correctly 'predicted' was going on for about 6 months before his prediction surfaced.

He predicted in 2000 that moderation and simplicity was right around the corner - ah... well, let's just say not during the Bush years.

I think he had some bizarre thing about how we would all be turning our front yards into gardens.

The fashion industry is on the outs do to the return of 'individuality'....

Painting and sculpture will be undermined by virtual reality and computer technology. (Been to a gallery show lately?)

The macarena is just the beginning of the latin influence in music - on a wide scale.

But, what he usually does is broad stroke things... Things such as when Americans grow older they will be spending more time at home.

He suggested Walmart could appear to be a better community citizen if they used local philanthropy.. duh

Generalities are simple... and common sense. Although I will say there certainly has been a lack of that in many areas of commerce leading up to this point.

I think my wife signed us up. We're getting ready to do some investing with his company.

Foss, I never took you for such an optimist - heck with all the doom and gloom that Celente is forecasting, should you be investing in anything? I mean if you go with full scale revolution, as he is forecasting - do you really think an old man, or his internet/publishing/professional speaking company has much of a chance?

SWHC... better bet...

 

[Calabrio]

I think right now, being in the doom and gloom business is showing to be pretty good. Just look at the threads on this site - the right is picking doom and gloom constantly

Perhaps right now, but Celente is among the handful of guys consistently making the same argument for several years now. When it wasn't popular. If he were jumping on a band wagon, I'd be inclined to completely dismiss him.

And I don't think he's actually arguing that everything he's forecasting WILL happen, but that it might. And it's better to prepare for the worst and then if it turns out to be better, just move back from that.

Celente is just going with the current 'trend'. He follows trends - doom and gloom looks like a good 'sell' right now, so thee he goes... Down the path of the sale.

As mentioned, this dismissal of him isn't fair because he didn't just "go there" now when the sale was easy. He's been there for a few years, when it was bad business.

He is a generalist usually.

However, he certainly didn't predict this market down turn did he? (No he didn't).

He didn't predict 9/11, the Iraqi war, the first black president. Heck, the list of what he 'didn't' predict is monumental.

Actually, he did anticipate the market.
As for the other things, I don't know. I've been looking for historic reports from him online, or articles detailing his mistakes, but I'm having a difficult time finding anything other than what I've already posted.

What I look for when looking at the 'record' of these fortune tellers is not how much they got right, or even how many they got wrong - but how many did they miss entirely...

You can't pick up everything. He's not a fortune teller, he just studies trends and attempts to forecast where they are headed.

Celente missed a lot. And usually what is remembered, and drudged up are successes, failures are conveniently quickly forgotten.

That's always the case, that's why I asked if you knew of some failures. I figured you'd tap into your left wing-nut sources and repeat what they'd dug up. The critical pieces I've found have merely been defensively dismissive. And I can't find anything older than 12/2006 to refer to.

Heck, even the dot.com turn down, which he says he correctly 'predicted' was going on for about 6 months before his prediction surfaced.

He predicted in 2000 that moderation and simplicity was right around the corner - ah... well, let's just say not during the Bush years.

Again, you could argue that the decisions made by the fed during this period extended the period of consumption artificially- until now.

Again, he's not a psychic, he works at forecasting trends.

I wouldn't bet my home on something he alone said, but I think it's reasonable to take it into consideration. Of the sane people, it's certainly one of the more alarming calls, but as mentioned, he's said that he's emphasizing the worst case scenario.


For the sake of discussion, if you're determining an outcome based on bad information, you'll usually have a bad decision. If you think he's being completely unreasonable, do you think the argument he's making, the situation that's he's stating exists, is incorrect?

At this point, let's discuss the logic of his "forecast" rather than his history, since that's proving to be difficult to research. I can find old issues of his paper online anywhere for free, and the liberal blogs are just attacking him for the sake of defending Obama's legacy.

 

[fossten]

I think right now, being in the doom and gloom business is showing to be pretty good. Just look at the threads on this site - the right is picking doom and gloom constantly

You are aware, are you not, that Obama is leading the doom and gloom charge?

 

[foxpaws]

So, you are saying this man is sane, even knowing he thought the Macarena was going to be the next big influence in music?

OK.

So are we supposed to take on all his little predictions on his Trends site – the ones you can see for ‘free’?

Actually, he did anticipate the market.

Well, maybe – I can’t find him quoted regarding this little tidbit off his site. I can’t find anywhere, like US News, or somewhere where this prediction, the one regarding the current market problems, was referenced. He touts it on his own site, but, needless to say I would be skeptical of that.

I think he sort of lives in his own infomercial world. He seems to be rarely quoted.

I see a lot of reports regarding trends, his pops up once in a while, but I haven’t really paid much attention, his rarely crosses over to my line of work. He does a tiny bit of retail stuff, no automotive as far as I remember.

So, would I take his stuff into consideration? Probably not. When I am doing trend research, beside finding people who have a lot of predictions correct, especially within the last 5 years, I also look for people who specialize. They seem to do better. They have a better grasp of a specific market segment, industry, etc. Also, I look to see how often do they get hired out to do research regarding a specific topic or trend. Their ‘resume’ so to speak.

Celente seems to be all over the map regarding his predictions. And, it doesn’t look like he gets quoted a lot outside of his website, nor does it appear as though he gets hired by the big boys…

As you said Cal, it is difficult finding any outside source on him -

 

[Calabrio]

So, you are saying this man is sane, even knowing he thought the Macarena was going to be the next big influence in music?

The Macarena was a huge hit, internationally and in the United States. It's ranked #5 on the Billboard All Time Top 100.

As you said Cal, it is difficult finding any outside source on him -

So, instead of trying to smear him and discredit him despite having virtually no negative information about him. The only thing you've done in this thread is attempt to attack and discredit the guy.

You argued that he was just an opportunistic "doom and gloomer" jumping on the band wagon to cash in. But since he's been one of the long voices forecasting a depressionary scenario for several years, DESPITE it's negative effect on his business, you seem to have stopped mentioning that "point."

You tried to equate him to a psychic. But after we addressed that, you've moved away from that angle too.

Now you're just trying to dismiss his methodology and say that someone else, anyone, would be better that him, because they're more "specialized" at forecasting trends. Perhaps, but that doesn't mean either of them are necessarily wrong or right.

You seem to be invested in attacking and dismissing this guy, rather than actually addressing the substance of his forecast. All of your attacks have failed and none of the "party" operatives and talking points have found anything specific to hammer this guy on.

None of us, and I've invested a fair amount of time looking, have yet to find any reason to dismiss or discredit him.

So let's address the content of this current forecast regarding a long term depression. First, the logic and information he used to arrive at his conclusion and then the situation he forecasts, instead of the what are basically just ad homenim attacks on the individual.

 

[foxpaws]

So, first - how about some credit - from off-site source - where Celente's trend forecasting has been printed or quoted other than at Trends Research Institute? You have been doing a lot of research on him... do you have that research available? Where a group of his forecasts has been published and then quoted as accurate by an outside source?

Usually you look at lists - that is what many trend forecasting companies have. A 5-year list of trends forecast (usually published in trade magazines, so in my case automotive advertising trade magazines) and then the actual historical data.

So, if a company forecast that SUV sales would increase by 25% among 50+ women in the southwest from 2000-2005, then they would show historical data that indeed from 2000-2005 50+ year old women in the southwest bought 21% more vehicles.

I would have done this with any trend forecaster that is as sketchy as Celente - it doesn't matter what they forecast.

The Macarena was a huge hit - and that is why Celente 'forecast' that music would be heavily influenced by Latin music. He was basing his forecast on the fact that the Macarena, and a few other Latin songs, were big hits. Two things - One - he didn't forecast that the Macarena would become a hit, and Two - what he did forecast - that Latin music would be the big driver in popular music - didn't pan out.

And, since I watch certain trends, my method is to use specialists. That is a personal observation.

So, have you found what information he has used regarding for forecasting the upcoming 'depression'? The numbers that he uses and the source for those numbers. Has he done any polling or research?

All trend forecasts need to be tempered by many things. One is how and where they are acquiring their information. As well as a 'report card' of trend forecasting successes and failures. As I said, I would be doing this with any forecaster.

 

[Calabrio]

So, first - how about some credit - from off-site source - where Celente's trend forecasting has been printed or quoted other than at Trends Research Institute? You have been doing a lot of research on him... do you have that research available? Where a group of his forecasts has been published and then quoted as accurate by an outside source?

I've found virtually nothing on the web that I would consider a reliable reference regarding that guy. Youtube is the source with the most information, though most of the videos are within two years old and deal with the great depression scenario. All that does is confirm that he's been one of the lone voices painting the doomsday scenario for several years now.

And while he's introduced as having made all of those impressive forecasts, that's probably because they were reading his press release.

I would have done this with any trend forecaster that is as sketchy as Celente - it doesn't matter what they forecast.

Please do.

Two things - One - he didn't forecast that the Macarena would become a hit, and Two - what he did forecast - that Latin music would be the big driver in popular music - didn't pan out.

I don't know what year that forecast was made, and I think it's a waste of time for us to invest energy focusing on it BUT:

The Macarena was originally released in 1993, the video 1996
AFTER THAT- we saw Enrique Iglesias, Lopez, Marc Anthony, Shaquira, and Christina Aguilera among others all hit big around and after 1999. So I don't know if you can really dismiss that forecast.

So...rather than belabor every one of your filibusters, is your angle now that you don't want to acknowledge what he's saying because you don't know or don't respect his methodology and there's nothing more to discuss. You will not give him, or more importantly, his message any credibility by acknowledging.

And let me note, I'm not convinced this guy is anything special. I get the impression that much of what he might be perceived as is a product of his own hype.

But, let me just post a TV appearance, so we have something specific to either discuss, or avoid discussing:
YouTube - Fox Business: Gerald Celente Predicts Revolution

 

[luxuryrules]

I've found virtually nothing on the web that I would consider a reliable reference regarding that guy.

That pretty much says what we need to know. Instead of fox having to disprove him with reliable sources, can you, shag, & foss prove him with reliable (independent) sources? As shag would say, the burden of proof here is not for fox to discredit him, rather, for you guys to credit him.

I'm listening. Some good info and videos here so far, but I have a lot more reading to do before I form an opinion on the guy one way or the other.

When I was very young, my parents first explained to me what debt was and how people with little money were able to afford nice cars and houses. My first question was what happened if people could not pay the banks back, and they explained how defaulting works. Of course, that led to my next question of what happened when the banks loaned too much money to too many people who couldn't pay it back - would they have to stop lending? Even at a very young age I had put together than lending too much to people who couldn't pay you is an unsustainable way of doing business. Of course, I was told this was never going to happen. Lo and behold... it did. Does that mean that I can claim that I saw the credit crisis coming?

 

[foxpaws]

They don't seem to understand that - I have asked, and looked for that - a 'track record' that is unbiased for Celente. It is always what you look for when reviewing a service that 'forecasts'. You need a laundry list of hits and misses - both are important.

And Cal, he thought that latin music would have the influence of punk, rap or grunge - that type of influence. I don't hear a lot of Marc Anthony influence 'today's' music - however, I hear a lot of Sex Pistols and Cobain connections all the time.