Has the energy bubble popped?

shagdrum

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Oil prices tumble in biggest weekly drop ever

Jul 18 05:38 PM US/Eastern
By ADAM SCHRECK
AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) - A stunning sell-off dragged oil prices to their biggest weekly drop ever and gas prices at the pump slipped by the more than they have at any point since February, giving consumers a rare breather in a year of record fuel prices.

The national average for a gallon of regular fell by the most since February, AAA data show, and could ease further in the days to come.

So is it time to declare the energy bubble popped?

Experts won't go that far just yet.

"It's too early to say we've seen the worst of it," said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst of the Oil Price Information Service in Wall, N.J. "We would be Pollyannish if we believe one week represents a trend."

Still industry experts who just days ago thought there was more juice left in oil's meteoric run, are reconsidering.

"If this is not the bubble's implosion, than it's a reasonable facsimile," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said in his daily market commentary. "Time will tell. Nevertheless, for the time being we no longer care to hold a bullish view."

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell 41 cents Friday to settle at $128.88 on the New York Mercantile Exchange—well below its trading record of more than $147 a week earlier.

The average price of a gallon of regular gas fell about a penny for the day, to $4.105, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. Diesel prices dipped three-tenths of a cent to $4.842 a gallon.

Some analysts said a nationwide average of $4 or even lower could be in the offing—almost unthinkable in a summer when there has seemed to be no relief at the pump—although they cautioned that there is no guarantee prices will stay low.

"We're going to see some relief from that relentless march higher," Kloza said.

Gas may be getting just a bit cheaper, but major changes in how Americans live and drive are already in motion.

Car buyers have been fleeing to more fuel-efficient models. U.S. sales of pickups and sport utility vehicles are down nearly 18 percent this year through June, while sales of small cars are up more than 10 percent.

While slashing production of more-profitable trucks and SUVs, automakers have been scurrying to build their most fuel-efficient models faster.

Toyota Motor Corp., which hasn't been able to keep up with demand for its 46-miles-per-gallon Prius hybrid, said last week it will start producing the Prius in the U.S. and suspend truck and SUV production to meet changing consumer demands.

Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. also have announced plans to increase small car production, and GM has said 18 of the 19 vehicles it is launching between now and 2010 are cars or crossovers.

Some brave traders used the week's pullback in oil prices as a chance to buy barrels that suddenly seemed to be on sale. But oil analysts were advising investors to beware.

"Buying here is an opportunity if you are a deep believer in $200 (a barrel), otherwise we think that caution would be better applied," analyst Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland said in a research note.

If oil buyers sense that the slide was overdone, you'll probably notice at the pump quickly.

"If (oil prices) rebound, you're going to see a quick reaction at the gas station, because their profit margins are so stretched," AAA spokesman Geoff Sundstrom said. "They may be very fast bringing prices back up."

In other Nymex trade, heating oil futures fell 5.23 cents to settle at $3.6915 a gallon while gasoline futures edged up 0.73 cent to $3.1709 a gallon. Natural gas futures rose 3.3 cents to $10.57 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 88 cents to settle at $130.19 on the ICE Futures Exchange.
 
Too soon to tell yet considering how fast the price went up since the beginning of the year.

A lot of people have cut back on their driving especially the big poor mileage SUVs and 4X4 Pickups.

These vehicles took off in popularity with the 1991 introduction of the Ford Explorer (sometimes erroniously refered to as an "Exploder" the unintended pun fitting due to the Firestone underinflated exploding at 80 mph in August causing a rollover tire recall).

Big, heavy gas guzzlers, prone to roll over due to a high center of gravity, not having to meet car crash safety standards; these vehicles nonetheless became big sellers
to a lot of average Americans.

Now with $4.00+ gas people are leaving them in droves
as casual transportation except for those who really need them or can afford high fuel costs.

A limit has been reached.
Regular folks can't afford them any more.
The cutback in use of these big vehicles and the movement towards smaller cars has been as abrupt as the price increase.

RIP Casual SUV use 1991-2008

We'll see in a few months where the price of oil will be although these big drops are encouraging.
 
Ford to retool U.S. plants for European cars: report

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Car maker Ford Motor Co (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) is drawing up plans to retool American plants to make small, fuel-efficient passenger cars that it mainly makes and sells in Europe, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday.
The paper said Ford has looked at bringing over European models, including the mid-size Mondeo, in response to high fuel costs that have hit sales of larger, fuel-hungry trucks and sport utility vehicles.
Citing people familiar with the matter, the WSJ said portions of this move could be announced on Thursday when the Dearborn, Michigan-based company reports second-quarter results.
In June, Ford announced it would slash output this year by eliminating shifts, slowing assembly lines and idling truck plants. The car maker said further details on its revised restructuring plan would be provided when it released its second-quarter results.
In an e-mail response to a request for comment on the WSJ report, Ford spokesman Mark Truby said the company would not release details of its plans before Thursday.
"We won't comment on speculation on what we may or may not announce in advance," he said.
(Reporting by Nick Carey, editing by Eric Beech)
Sat Jul 19, 2008 1:52pm EDT
 

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