Reason: Predictions for 2008

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Predictions for 2008
The un-parodiable state of civil liberties in America

Radley Balko | December 21, 2007
http://reason.com/news/show/124055.html

As the end of the year approaches, it's time for another column of government overreach predictions for the New Year. What outrageous, beyond-parody grabs at power and erosions of civil liberties will transpire in 2008? My predictions:

• The Bush administration will claim it has the power to kidnap citizens of foreign countries for violating U.S. law, and extradite them to the U.S. for trial and imprisonment—even for white collar crimes unrelated to terrorism, and even for acts that aren't illegal in the countries where the target is a citizen.

• Police will take enforcement of prostitution laws to a new level, by arresting and seizing the cars of anyone who merely talks to an undercover cop posing as a sex worker. Good samaritans, beware.

• The war on prescription painkillers will also reach new absurdities, as people will begin to be arrested and convicted of possessing painkillers for which they have a prescription . Prosecutors will weirdly argue that there is no "prescription defense" to possessing prescribed medication.

• How about sex crimes laws? I predict that here too, prosecutors will overreach. Watch, as some overzealous district attorney will charge middle school kids with sex crimes for such childhood shenanigans as slapping fellow classmates on the buttocks.

• While it continues to federalize crime and find new reasons to toss people in prison, members of Congress will simultaneously continue to attempt to put themselves above the law. I predict that the House of Representatives will attempt to prevent police from searching the computers of one of its members, even if that member is being investigated for soliciting sex with minors.

• Public schools will teach not just reading, writing, and arithmetic, they'll start teaching students to spy on their parents , and to report their parents to local authorities for minor violations of city codes, such as failing to recycle, or failing to keep their lawn trimmed.

• Pressed for revenue, at least one state in the country will pass draconian new traffic laws mandating fines of $1,000 or more for routine traffic violations, in a bald attempt to fill state treasury coffers. The bill will be sponsored by a lawmaker who, conveniently enough, also has a law practice that specializes in defending people accused of traffic violations. He will not disclose during the debate that the bill will almost certainly benefit him financially. He'll be reelected, anyway.

• A state governor will propose legislation calling for two-year prison terms for people who play online poker . Rather shamelessly, the proposal will come in the same bill that calls for allowing the construction of three new casinos in the same state.

• While we're talking about gambling, states will continue to crack down on the poker craze. Even VFW posts won't be immune. Soon, we'll see cops sent to break up $5 cribbage games, and SWAT teams to break up charity poker games. In fact, cops will raid bars where it merely looks like people are gambling, even if no gambling is actually taking place. Meanwhile, states will continue to spend millions promoting their own lotteries.

• Standing on the sidewalk will become a crime .

• Cities will begin seizing the cars of people who play their stereos too loud . In fact, they'll seize the cars based on little more the word of someone else that the car's owner was playing his stereo too loud.

• Proving there's no part of your life the Nanny State can't reach, states will begin asking bars to install talking urinal cakes, which will warn men as they relieve themselves that drinking and driving isn't cool.

• Another state's lawmakers will propose a bill that bans "eating, drinking, smoking, reading, writing, personal grooming, playing an instrument, interacting with pets or cargo, talking on a cell phone or using any other personal communication device" while driving.

• Two years after banning traffic cameras in the name of "liberty," the Virginia legislature will decide that revenue is more important than liberty, and will revoke the ban .

• The FBI will imply to Congress that sometimes it has to let it's undercover informants get away with murdering American citizens so as not to disrupt drug investigations.

• Following up on the enormous "success" (that's sarcasm) of laws putting cold medicine behind the drug store counters because they can be used to make meth, legislators will propose putting baking soda behind the counter , too, because it can be used to make crack.

Too over-the top? Too paranoid? As you may have guessed from clicking the embedded links (of if you read either of my two prior year-end columns ), none of the bullet points above were actual predictions. Each of the above already happened in the past 12 months, in 2007.

Each year, government at all levels encroaches a bit more on our personal, economic, and political freedom. One prediction that I'm pretty confident will come true: Come December 2008, there will be more than enough material for another column like this one.

Radley Balko is a senior editor for reason. This article originally appeared at FoxNews.com.
 
Monday, January 01, 2007

Stranger Than Satire: Past Year 'Predicts' New One
By Radley Balko


It is something of a clichéd tradition for a columnist to write a year-end or New Year column that makes exaggerated, sometimes humorous predictions for the next 12 months.

I wrote such a column at about this time last year,with "predictions" that reflected the continuing, creeping influence of government in our lives. Unfortunately, the state of civil liberties and both economic and personal freedom haven't improved much over the past year. So I figure it's time for another round of unlikely predictions as to what we might expect from our government in 2007.

--In yet another case of government bureaucracy gone mad, some local health agency will insist that the churches and private homes where volunteers prepare food for homeless people pass rigorous, restaurant-standard health inspections</a> or shut down operations.

The silly policy will be justified in the name of protecting the homeless when, in reality, it will really only lead to fewer homeless people getting fed.

--In a scenario straight out of George Orwell's "1984," several local governments will begin to encourage children to turn in their parents when the parents fail to abide by building and property code violations, such as mowing the grass, properly sorting recyclables, and similar mundanities.

--In an aptly striking display of the drug war's misplaced priorities, federal narcotics police will sit idly by while government informant takes part in several drug-related murders. The reason for their inaction? It was more important to get information from the informant on drug dealing than preventing the killings.

--In other drug war news, when asked to explain how today's drug prohibition differs from the nation's failed attempt at alcohol prohibition in the 1920s, the nation's top drug cop will actually make the argument that alcohol prohibition was a success.

--A radio host in the nation's capital will play a hoax on his listeners, jokingly suggesting that all Muslims in America be identified with an armband or a tattoo. He will then express shock when a solid majority of callers to his show will express their agreement with the proposition.

--In Britain, where the Nanny State is even more aggressive than it is here in the U.S, a government health agency will insist that the company that makes the whimsically-named "Dragon Sausage" change the product's name, or pull it from the market.

The reason? Customers might be fooled into thinking the product contains actual dragon meat.

--Now that the federal government has made online gambling a crime, some state government will take things even further, and make writing about online gambling a crime.

--Some state that spends millions of dollars promoting its lottery will protect its monopoly on gambling by executing a man for the crime of wagering with his friends on football games.


--Having run out of things to tax, some state legislator will attempt to pass a law stating that any money left over on retail "gift cards" be forfeited to the state government.

--Taking the overuse of SWAT teams to new, un-parody-able levels, a federal SWAT team will raid a group of Tibetan monks touring the United States on a world peace mission.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6476
http://www.ketv.com/news/7409792/detail.html

--Some silly conservative will write a book blaming rap music and South Park for the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

--A major U.S. magazine will riff on the obesity hysteria, and run a hoax article about the possibility of taxing fat people for their extra weight. The magazine will then get a significant amount of mail from people who support the idea.

--In a strategy pulled straight from the movie "Minority Report," police in some towns will start "pre-arresting"people for drunken driving.

--Not content with mere gun control, some local governments will begin to ban swords, too.

--After successfully pushing questionable science on the effects of secondhand smoke for decades, the public health movement will move on to their next hysteria: Secondhand drinking.

--Not content with micromanaging parents when it comes to bicycle helmets, car seats and any number of laws and regulations, some state legislator will get the idea that we should make kids who play soccer wear helmets

<p>--In the never-ending race to see which state can be toughest on sex offenders, one state will propose a public registry of people merely accused of sex crimes. They needn't be actually convicted, or even charged.

--In Great Britain, a country whose system of socialized medicine is commonly cited as something the U.S. should strive for, hospitals that defy the system and actually treat patients with some degree of haste and efficacy will be fined by the government for "overperforming."

--Two "public health" professionals will argue that what developing countries really need – places where people are starving and women still routinely die in childbirth – are policies like motorcycle helmet and seatbelt laws.

As you might have guessed if you clicked on the links, or if you read last year's column, all of the above are not really predictions for 2007, but actual events that took place in 2006.

Truth, once again, is stranger (or more depressing, depending on your perspective) than fiction.

What will 2007 bring? My guess is that by December, I'll have another column of government excesses too strange to be satirized.
 
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