Slaves to Words

shagdrum

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Slaves to Words
Thomas Sowell

We could definitely use another Abraham Lincoln to emancipate us all from being slaves to words. In the midst of a historic financial crisis of unprecedented government spending, and a national debt that outstrips even the debt accumulated by the reckless government spending of previous administration, we are still enthralled by words and ignoring realities.

President Barack Obama's constant talk about "millionaires and billionaires" needing to pay higher taxes would be a bad joke, if the consequences were not so serious. Even if the income tax rate were raised to 100 percent on millionaires and billionaires, it would still not cover the trillions of dollars the government is spending.

More fundamentally, tax rates-- whatever they are-- are just words on paper. Only the hard cash that comes in can cover government spending. History has shown repeatedly, under administrations of both political parties, that there is no automatic correlation between tax rates and tax revenues.

When the tax rate on the highest incomes was 73 percent in 1921, that brought in less tax revenue than after the tax rate was cut to 24 percent in 1925. Why? Because high tax rates that people don't actually pay do not bring in as much hard cash as lower tax rates that they do pay. That's not rocket science.

Then and now, people with the highest incomes have had the greatest flexibility as to where they will put their money. Buying tax-exempt bonds is just one of the many ways that "millionaires and billionaires" avoid paying hard cash to the government, no matter how high the tax rates go.

Most working people don't have the same options. Their taxes have been taken out of their paychecks before they get them.

Even more so today than in the 1920s, billions of dollars can be sent overseas electronically, almost instantaneously, to be invested in other countries-- creating jobs there, while millions of American are unemployed. That is a very high price to pay for class warfare rhetoric about taxing "millionaires and billionaires."

Make no mistake about it, that kind of rhetoric wins votes for political demagogues-- and votes are their bottom line. But that is totally different from saying that it will bring in more tax revenue to the government.

Time and again, at both state and federal levels, in the country and in other countries, tax rates and tax revenue have moved in opposite directions many times. After Maryland raised its tax rates on people making a million dollars a year, there were fewer such people living in Maryland-- and less tax revenue was collected from them.

In 2009, many people specializing in high finance in Britain relocated to Switzerland after the British government announced plans to take 51 percent of high incomes in taxes.

Conversely, reductions in tax rates can lead to more tax revenue being collected. After the capital gains tax rate was cut in the United States in 1997, the government collected nearly twice as much revenue from capital gains taxes in the next four years as in the previous four years.

Similar things have happened in India and in Iceland.

There is no automatic correlation between the direction in which tax rates move and the direction in which tax revenues move. Nor is this a new discovery.

Back in the 1920s, Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon pointed out that people with high incomes were simply not paying the high tax rates that existed on paper, because they were putting their money into tax shelters.

After the tax rates were cut, as Mellon advocated, investments flowed back into the private economy, producing higher output, rising incomes, more tax revenue and more jobs. The annual unemployment rate in the next four years never exceeded 4.2 percent, and in one year was as low as 1.8 percent.

Despite political demagoguery about "tax cuts for the rich," in human terms the rich have less at stake than working people. Precisely because the rich have so many ways of avoiding taxes, a high tax rate is likely to do them far less harm than it does to the economy, on which millions of people depend for jobs.
 
There is no automatic correlation between tax rates and revenues.
However this is also a broad generalization of the richest of the rich wheras there's a whole class of junior millionaire business owners and contractors that can't just pick up and move themselves and/or their money to other states and countries.
Marginal tax rate increases do produce more revenue from those who can't run away.
New York's 2% surtax on people earning more than 250k added in 2009 that was disingenuously refered to as the "millionaire's tax" resulted in several billions of dollars in revenue.

Conversely to the thrust of your article we could say that there is no automatic correlation between tax cuts and job creation but mainly anecdotal correlation.
Your examples are too broad.
 
Conversely to the thrust of your article we could say that there is no automatic correlation between tax cuts and job creation but mainly anecdotal correlation.

Not so much.

The idea that tax cuts lead to job growth depends on human action. the latter is logical consequence of the former (causation).

The idea that tax rate increases lead to tax revenue increases ignores human action. The latter is not a logical consequence of the former (no causation).

It ties back to the basic theory and the logical soundness of the theory. If that theory is not logically sound, all the "evidence" in the world is irrelevant (and unnecessary) to proving or disproving it.

Economics is, first and foremost, a study of human action given certain incentives and constraints. That study starts with theory and basic, deductive logic.

As to the "anecdotal" claim, if anything your NY example is anecdotal because, as an exception to the general pattern it is the very definition of anecdotal.
The expression anecdotal evidence refers both to evidence that is factually unreliable, as well as evidence that may be true but cherry-picked or otherwise unrepresentative of typical cases. In other words, there are two distinct meanings:
  1. Evidence in the form of an anecdote or hearsay is called anecdotal if there is doubt about its veracity; the evidence itself is considered untrustworthy.
  2. Evidence, which may itself be true and verifiable, used to deduce a conclusion which does not follow from it, usually by generalizing from an insufficient amount of evidence. For example "my grandfather smoked like a chimney and died healthy in a car crash at the age of 99" does not disprove the proposition that "smoking markedly increases the probability of cancer and heart disease at a relatively early age". In this case, the evidence may itself be true, but does not warrant the conclusion.
 
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Ever hear of Praxeology?

"Praxeology is the study of those aspects of human action that can be grasped a priori; in other words, it is concerned with the conceptual analysis and logical implications of preference, choice, means-end schemes, and so forth."

"Praxeology is the study of human action. Etymologically defined as "the science of human action", the most common use of the term is in connection with two traditions: 1) the work of Ludwig von Mises and the Austrian School of economics, and 2) the work of Tadeusz Kotarbiński and the Polish School of Praxiology (spelled Praxiology)."

"History cannot be imagined without theory. The naive belief that, unprejudiced by any theory, one can derive history directly from the sources is quite untenable. Rickert has argued in an irrefutable way that the task of history does not consist in the duplication of reality, but in its reconstitution and simplification by means of concepts. If one renounces the construction and use of theories concerning the connections among phenomena, on no account does one arrive at a solution of the problems that is free of theory and therefore in closer conformity with reality. We cannot think without making use of the category of causality. All thinking, even that of the historian, postulates this principle. The only question is whether one wants to have recourse to causal explanations that have been elaborated and critically examined by scientific thought or to uncritical, popular, prescientific 'dogmas.' No explanations reveal themselves directly from the facts."
-Ludwig von Mises​
 
Also note, tax revenues have fallen in N.Y. state every year.
And as this goes on, we continue to see the flight of people in their 30s from the state.


Perhaps you have the wrong link.
Yes New York especially upstate has an exodus of younger people.
Our needs were different and we moved here because it's the closest big american city to Toronto and the one comparative advantage of Buffalo is real estate is cheap.
Starting with renting 2000 sq ft and going to 3500, 7000, then 42,000 sq ft after 14 years we bought a 140,000 sq ft 40's vintage modernized industrial building with 28 ft ceilings and 10 overhead cranes for 7.00 sq ft.
It would cost 40-50 sq ft to build.
I'm not happy paying the extra 2% and for my income it comes out to an extra 35k a year but it has raised revenue.
 
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Our needs were different and we moved here because it's the closest big american city to Toronto and the one comparative advantage of Buffalo is real estate is cheap.
Starting with renting 2000 sq ft and going to 3500, 7000, then 42,000 sq ft after 14 years we bought a 140,000 sq ft 40's vintage modernized industrial building with 28 ft ceilings and 10 overhead cranes for 7.00 sq ft.
It would cost 40-50 sq ft to build.
I'm not happy paying the extra 2% and for my income it comes out to an extra 35k a year but it has raised revenue.

So you are saying there is a economic advantage for you being there as opposed to moving in light of the 2% tax?

If that is the case, then it simply means that you haven't hit the point yet where it would be more economically advantageous to move somewhere else. What if the tax were an extra 10%? 20%?

The point is that there would be a point where it would make more sense for you to move then to stay.

At 2% it may not reach that point of you or many other millionaires, but that doesn't mean that such a point cannot be reached. It simply means there are other mitigating factors that work as an incentive to stay in NY for you and many others.

Basically, the NY example doesn't disprove the notion that increased taxes on the wealthy tend to drive the wealthy away. It only seems to show that there can be mitigating factors that put off that natural reaction.

That is the heart of all this. Simply citing an example that superficially goes against the theory of causation doesn't prove anything. First, the example needs to be examined to confirm whether or not the example is, in fact, a contradiction to the theory (the NY example seems to fail in this regard). Second, there needs to be a pattern of events that, upon critical examination contradict the theory. If the second point is not met, it is highly unlikely that the first point will be met.

"The only question is whether one wants to have recourse to causal explanations that have been elaborated and critically examined by scientific thought or to uncritical, popular, prescientific 'dogmas.'"
 
So you are saying there is a economic advantage for you being there as opposed to moving in light of the 2% tax?

If that is the case, then it simply means that you haven't hit the point yet where it would be more economically advantageous to move somewhere else. What if the tax were an extra 10%? 20%?

The point is that there would be a point where it would make more sense for you to move then to stay.

At 2% it may not reach that point of you or many other millionaires, but that doesn't mean that such a point cannot be reached. It simply means there are other mitigating factors that work as an incentive to stay in NY for you and many others.

Basically, the NY example doesn't disprove the notion that increased taxes on the wealthy tend to drive the wealthy away. It only seems to show that there can be mitigating factors that put off that natural reaction.

That is the heart of all this. Simply citing an example that superficially goes against the theory of causation doesn't prove anything. First, the example needs to be examined to confirm whether or not the example is, in fact, a contradiction to the theory (the NY example seems to fail in this regard). Second, there needs to be a pattern of events that, upon critical examination contradict the theory. If the second point is not met, it is highly unlikely that the first point will be met.
"The only question is whether one wants to have recourse to causal explanations that have been elaborated and critically examined by scientific thought or to uncritical, popular, prescientific 'dogmas.'"

Yes your thrust is true but life is more complicated than just theories.
Depressed area's have what is called comparative advantage for those who make their own destiny.
Income taxes may be high compared to lower tax states but real estate costs are low.
It would cost 20 times more to own the real estate that houses the machines that produce the income so that is a big consideration.
For me to move would cost millions of dollars in business inturruption and costs pulling a dozen pieces of heavy equipment that weighs 20 tons a piece out of the floor, dismantling it loading on flatbeds, unloading it then setting it up in a new location.
 
Sorry, but could you educated folks start using smaller words or user friendly for us slow folks. :D I could not get past the 1 OP posting. Sorry, sounds interesting though ;)
 
Yes your thrust is true but life is more complicated than just theories.

Actually, it is precisely because life is so complex that theory is required to make any sense of it.

Again, "The only question is whether one wants to have recourse to causal explanations that have been elaborated and critically examined by scientific thought or to uncritical, popular, prescientific 'dogmas.' No explanations reveal themselves directly from the facts."
 
Actually, '04, you might find it advantageous to look at Detroit. It's possible to acquire industrial Real Estate here for pennies on the dollar, and with very good terms as well. And with Snyder doing something about the State's attitude toward business...

Come for a visit and I'll buy the beer---or whatever!

KS
 
Actually, '04, you might find it advantageous to look at Detroit. It's possible to acquire industrial Real Estate here for pennies on the dollar, and with very good terms as well. And with Snyder doing something about the State's attitude toward business...

Come for a visit and I'll buy the beer---or whatever!

KS

I remember my visit to Detroit as a young Canuck in 1982.
We were vendors at the car show selling body parts and brought a bunch of stuff in a gutted converted to carry auto parts school bus LOL!
It was my first experience seeing american style inch thick bulletproof plexiglass going into a restaurant to get a coffee :p
Is that still the norm with the plexiglass?
The magic bus was a 5 speed manual with an axle splitter button on the stick and a plywood roof extension and double deck trailer all painted yellow.
The gas schoolbus 427 just couldn't take pulling all that weight and it eventually blew a few engines.
Probably why the guy sold it to my partner who wanted to go to Tennessee to buy used southern body parts from rural wrecking yards.
People had their own private junk yards and in Kentucky we saw cars buried half way in the ground.
I also drove it to Carlisle Penn for that legendary Hershey car show.
I laugh when I think back about it.
I'm pretty planted and rooted here and the 60k sq ft building next door is up for sale cheap and the owner will take a mortgage.
Ah Serendipity :D my middle name.
But thanks for the offer....
 
It's Lexan from waist-high on up, and a panel of quarter-inch plywood behind the shelves with the candy bars all piled up. But Coleman was a believer when it came to pistols. And particularly since the Washington DC decision and the general attitude showing signs of rejecting the anti's horse pucky, you can be equipped to protect yourself if you practice awareness.

Come for the beer, anyway!

KS
 

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