Who could end up splitting the Republican party...
Poll: Five Percent of Americans Have Attended Tea Parties; Movement Is Overwhelmingly White, Male and Conservative
By David Weigel 2/17/10 1:25 PM
CNN has a much-needed and revealing poll on the Tea Party movement, with full breakdowns available at their site that reveal — no huge surprise — that it looks like a subsection of the Republican Party. The headline: Eleven percent of Americans have given some kind of support to the movement, with 5 percent attending rallies.
The demographic breakdowns: Tea Party activists are 60 percent male and 80 percent white, with 77 percent of them self-identifying as “conservatives” and 44 percent identifying as “Republicans.” While 47 percent of Americans report making less than $50,000 a year, only 26 percent of Tea Party activists make that little, while 34 percent make $75,000 or more. The major way in which this movement differs from the Republican Party’s makeup is in geography. Only 31 percent live in the South. Twenty-nine percent live in the Midwest, and 28 percent live in the West. Only in the Northeast, where 13 percent of activists live, are they relatively underrepresented (19 percent of all poll respondents live there).
From CNN...
According to the survey, most Tea Party activists describe themselves as Independents.
"But that's slightly misleading, because 87 percent say they would vote for the GOP candidate in their congressional district if there were no third-party candidate endorsed by the Tea Party," says Holland.
So what would happen if the Tea Party supported independent candidates for Congress?
The poll indicates that in a two-way race on the so-called "generic ballot" question, GOP candidates have a 47 percent to 45 percent edge. Throw a Tea Party candidate into the mix, and that two-point advantage becomes a 12-point deficit. That's because virtually everyone who would vote for a Tea Party candidate in a three-way contest would choose a Republican in a two-way race. The Democratic candidate gets 45 percent in both scenarios, but the GOP candidate's share of the vote drops from 47 percent in a two-way contest to just 33 percent with a Tea Party candidate on the ballot.
Poll: Five Percent of Americans Have Attended Tea Parties; Movement Is Overwhelmingly White, Male and Conservative
By David Weigel 2/17/10 1:25 PM
CNN has a much-needed and revealing poll on the Tea Party movement, with full breakdowns available at their site that reveal — no huge surprise — that it looks like a subsection of the Republican Party. The headline: Eleven percent of Americans have given some kind of support to the movement, with 5 percent attending rallies.
The demographic breakdowns: Tea Party activists are 60 percent male and 80 percent white, with 77 percent of them self-identifying as “conservatives” and 44 percent identifying as “Republicans.” While 47 percent of Americans report making less than $50,000 a year, only 26 percent of Tea Party activists make that little, while 34 percent make $75,000 or more. The major way in which this movement differs from the Republican Party’s makeup is in geography. Only 31 percent live in the South. Twenty-nine percent live in the Midwest, and 28 percent live in the West. Only in the Northeast, where 13 percent of activists live, are they relatively underrepresented (19 percent of all poll respondents live there).
From CNN...
According to the survey, most Tea Party activists describe themselves as Independents.
"But that's slightly misleading, because 87 percent say they would vote for the GOP candidate in their congressional district if there were no third-party candidate endorsed by the Tea Party," says Holland.
So what would happen if the Tea Party supported independent candidates for Congress?
The poll indicates that in a two-way race on the so-called "generic ballot" question, GOP candidates have a 47 percent to 45 percent edge. Throw a Tea Party candidate into the mix, and that two-point advantage becomes a 12-point deficit. That's because virtually everyone who would vote for a Tea Party candidate in a three-way contest would choose a Republican in a two-way race. The Democratic candidate gets 45 percent in both scenarios, but the GOP candidate's share of the vote drops from 47 percent in a two-way contest to just 33 percent with a Tea Party candidate on the ballot.