Evolving Middle East Crisis Thread
- Thread starter Calabrio
- Start date
We shouldn't be scared all the time just because our rag tag enemies manage to set off a bomb and/or kill a few people once in a while.
Beheadings like this are lobbed as an emotional bomb ego trip and we shouldn't play into the expected reaction of giving it big status.
Heinous as it is(meant to be) politically it is a small event.
Let's get past the spectacular event of 9/11 and keep things in perspective.
All they have is pride and their wits but we have pride and power.
They think they have a great religion but we are a great power.
The Brits suffered through much more at the hands of the Germans during WW2 and maintained a stiff upper lip as they picked themselves up and went about their business.
They were Great Britain.
from here:
A new update at the BBC blog linked above notes that the Egyptian constitution doesn’t allow for power to devolve to the military but rather to the speaker of parliament if the president steps down. This is, in other words, a military coup; the question I posed above is simply whether it’s a soft one, with Mubarak agreeing that he has no cards left to play, or a hard one, with the military tossing him under the bus. It sure sounded like a coup this morning, too:
Anti-government protests spread to Iran
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021400848.html?nav=hcmodule
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, February 14, 2011; 12:22 PM
TEHRAN - Crowds of demonstrators battled security forces armed with tear gas and batons during a surprisingly large anti-government protest in the Iranian capital Monday that drew inspiration from the recent popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.
Dodging clouds of tear gas fired by police and pro-government militiamen, the protesters marched down a central boulevard and shouted slogans such as "Death to the dictator," "We are all together" and "Down with Taliban, in Cairo and Tehran."
Witnesses at several positions along the route said vast throngs of people could be seen marching from Enghelab (Revolution) Square toward Azadi (Freedom) Square, overwhelming police efforts to stop them.
Dozens of protesters were arrested for participating in the banned rally, an opposition Web site reported. A similar demonstration, clashes and arrests were reported in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.
The gathering in Tehran appeared to be the most significant anti-government protest here since security forces cracked down on a series of massive demonstrations in 2009. The size of the crowd was difficult to estimate. Some witnesses said they believed it exceeded 200,000. The Associated Press said tens of thousands of people demonstrated.
In any case, the government seemed to have been taken by surprise by the large numbers of protesters. Security forces shot dozens of tear gas grenades at demonstrators who at times attacked members of the pro-government paramilitary Basij forces.
Police, who seemed to be mobilized in smaller numbers than usual, tried to disperse the protesters using batons and tear gas. A man was seen coming to the rescue of his wife after a helmeted officer hit her on the legs.
In the afternoon, as the crowds grew, the police were seen retreating in some areas. By evening, the protesters seemed ready to disperse. Internet service had been disrupted in Tehran, so it was difficult to ascertain the next steps for organizers, who had relied on Web sites and social media to launch Monday's rally.
The roads near Tohid Square in western Tehran were lined with rocks, and steel street barriers were erected blockades against groups of Basij members.
After sunset, trash cans were set on fire as members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps drove past on their signature motorcycles and shot some bystanders with tear gas and paint guns. Some people in the crowd handed out masks that offered some protection from the stinging fumes. Others lit small fires that also provided relief.
Some demonstrators held green ribbons, the color of the opposition movement that sprang to life after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed election victory in 2009.
After the election, the movement staged widespread protests. Those protests were eventually stifled by security forces, including the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia, which are fiercely loyal to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Two people were hanged and scores of opposition supporters jailed. The last mass demonstration was in December 2009.
The 2009 protests were led in part by presidential challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose defeat by Ahmadinejad at the polls was widely questioned.
Mousavi also called for Monday's demonstration, saying people should rally in support of the protesters in Egypt and Tunisia who had succeeded in toppling their governments.
Although Iran's government has praised the Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings, officials refused to grant a permit for a gathering in Iran.
A statement on a Mousavi-affiliated Web site in advance of the rally warned that any violence directed at the protesters by security forces would be an international "disgrace" and would undermine the government's public support for the Egyptian and Tunisian protesters.
"Do not allow the infiltrating agents of those seeking violence to derail the demonstrations with their aggressive behavior under any circumstances," the statement posted on Kalameh.com said. "The noble people of Iran should participate in the peaceful demonstration, with calm and resolve."
On Saturday, the White House called on the Iranian government to allow its people to assemble.
"The Iranian government has declared illegal for Iranians what it claimed was noble for Egyptians," national security adviser Thomas E. Donilon said in a statement.
______________________________________________________________
A few weeks ago the Iranian government press couldn't be more pleased with the turmoil in Egypt, now they are cracking down on their own people.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/14/AR2011021400848.html?nav=hcmodule
Washington Post Foreign Service
Monday, February 14, 2011; 12:22 PM
TEHRAN - Crowds of demonstrators battled security forces armed with tear gas and batons during a surprisingly large anti-government protest in the Iranian capital Monday that drew inspiration from the recent popular uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.
Dodging clouds of tear gas fired by police and pro-government militiamen, the protesters marched down a central boulevard and shouted slogans such as "Death to the dictator," "We are all together" and "Down with Taliban, in Cairo and Tehran."
Witnesses at several positions along the route said vast throngs of people could be seen marching from Enghelab (Revolution) Square toward Azadi (Freedom) Square, overwhelming police efforts to stop them.
Dozens of protesters were arrested for participating in the banned rally, an opposition Web site reported. A similar demonstration, clashes and arrests were reported in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.
The gathering in Tehran appeared to be the most significant anti-government protest here since security forces cracked down on a series of massive demonstrations in 2009. The size of the crowd was difficult to estimate. Some witnesses said they believed it exceeded 200,000. The Associated Press said tens of thousands of people demonstrated.
In any case, the government seemed to have been taken by surprise by the large numbers of protesters. Security forces shot dozens of tear gas grenades at demonstrators who at times attacked members of the pro-government paramilitary Basij forces.
Police, who seemed to be mobilized in smaller numbers than usual, tried to disperse the protesters using batons and tear gas. A man was seen coming to the rescue of his wife after a helmeted officer hit her on the legs.
In the afternoon, as the crowds grew, the police were seen retreating in some areas. By evening, the protesters seemed ready to disperse. Internet service had been disrupted in Tehran, so it was difficult to ascertain the next steps for organizers, who had relied on Web sites and social media to launch Monday's rally.
The roads near Tohid Square in western Tehran were lined with rocks, and steel street barriers were erected blockades against groups of Basij members.
After sunset, trash cans were set on fire as members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps drove past on their signature motorcycles and shot some bystanders with tear gas and paint guns. Some people in the crowd handed out masks that offered some protection from the stinging fumes. Others lit small fires that also provided relief.
Some demonstrators held green ribbons, the color of the opposition movement that sprang to life after President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's disputed election victory in 2009.
After the election, the movement staged widespread protests. Those protests were eventually stifled by security forces, including the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia, which are fiercely loyal to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Two people were hanged and scores of opposition supporters jailed. The last mass demonstration was in December 2009.
The 2009 protests were led in part by presidential challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi, whose defeat by Ahmadinejad at the polls was widely questioned.
Mousavi also called for Monday's demonstration, saying people should rally in support of the protesters in Egypt and Tunisia who had succeeded in toppling their governments.
Although Iran's government has praised the Egyptian and Tunisian uprisings, officials refused to grant a permit for a gathering in Iran.
A statement on a Mousavi-affiliated Web site in advance of the rally warned that any violence directed at the protesters by security forces would be an international "disgrace" and would undermine the government's public support for the Egyptian and Tunisian protesters.
"Do not allow the infiltrating agents of those seeking violence to derail the demonstrations with their aggressive behavior under any circumstances," the statement posted on Kalameh.com said. "The noble people of Iran should participate in the peaceful demonstration, with calm and resolve."
On Saturday, the White House called on the Iranian government to allow its people to assemble.
"The Iranian government has declared illegal for Iranians what it claimed was noble for Egyptians," national security adviser Thomas E. Donilon said in a statement.
______________________________________________________________
A few weeks ago the Iranian government press couldn't be more pleased with the turmoil in Egypt, now they are cracking down on their own people.
Correct.
The Sharia gov't in Iran does not want another revolution in their country, they came to power after the "Democrat Revolution" in 1979 and will do their best to make certain that there isn't another one. That's what authoritarian regimes typically do.
The Sharia gov't in Iran does not want another revolution in their country, they came to power after the "Democrat Revolution" in 1979 and will do their best to make certain that there isn't another one. That's what authoritarian regimes typically do.
Egypt echoes across region: Iran, Bahrain, Yemen
By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Brian Murphy, Associated Press – 46 mins ago
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110214/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_s_spillover
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – The possible heirs of Egypt's uprising took to the streets Monday in different corners of the Middle East: Iran's beleaguered opposition stormed back to central Tehran and came under a tear gas attack by police. Demonstrators faced rubber bullets and birdshot to demand more freedoms in the relative wealth of Bahrain. And protesters pressed for the ouster of the ruler in poverty-drained Yemen.
The protests — all with critical interests for Washington — offer an important lesson about how groups across Middle East are absorbing the message from Cairo and tailoring it to their own aspirations.
The heady themes of democracy, justice and empowerment remain intact as the protest wave works it way through the Arab world and beyond. What changes, however, are the objectives. The Egypt effect, it seems, is elastic."This isn't a one-size-fits-all thing," said Mustafa Alani, a regional analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "Each place will interpret the fallout from Egypt in their own way and in their own context."For the Iranian opposition — not seen on the streets in more than a year — it's become a moment to reassert its presence after facing relentless pressures.
Tens of thousands of protesters clashed with security forces along some of Tehran's main boulevards, which were shrouded in clouds of tear gas in scenes that recalled the chaos after the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009.
"Death to the dictator," many yelled in reference to Ahmadinejad. Others took aim Iran's all-powerful Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with chants linking him with toppled rulers Hosni Mubarek in Egypt and Tunisia's Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali.
"Bin Ali, Mubarak, it's Seyed Ali's turn," protesters cried.The reformist website kaleme.com said police stationed several cars in front of the home of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi ahead of the demonstration. Mousavi and fellow opposition leader Mahdi Karroubi have been under house arrest since last week after they asked the government for permission to hold a rally in support of Egypt's uprising — which Iran's leaders have claimed was a modern-day replay of their 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Kd Mousavi, however, have compared the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia with their own struggles. Mousavi said all region's revolts aimed at ending the "oppression of the rulers."A new U.S. State Department Twitter account in Farsi took a jab at Iran in one of its first messages Sunday, calling on Tehran to "allow people to enjoy same universal rights to peacefully assemble, demonstrate as in Cairo."
U.S. Secretary of StateHillary Rodham Clinton expressed support for the Iranian protesters, saying they have to have the same rights that they saw being played out in Egypt and are part of their own birthright."
In Yemen, meanwhile, the protests are about speeding the ouster of the U.S.-allied president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has promised he would step down in 2013.
Monday's mirrored the calls in Egypt and Tunisia against their own leaders who had been in power for decades: "The people want the regime to step down."
Protesters in the tiny Gulf nation of Bahrain are not looking to topple its monarchy. But their demands are no less lofty: greater political freedom and sweeping changes in how the country is run.
The next possible round of demonstrations gives a similar divide.
A coalition in Algeria — human rights activists, unionists, lawyers and others — has called protests Saturday to push for the end of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's 12-year rule. Kuwait's highly organized opposition, including parliament members, plans gatherings March 8 to demand a wholesale change of cabinet officials, but not the ruling emir.
"We are experiencing a pan-Arab democratic moment of sorts," said Shadi Hamid, director of research at The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. "For opposition groups, it comes down the question of, `If not now, when?'"
But he noted that the newfound Arab confidence for change will go in various directions.
"The Arab opposition are using the Egyptian model as a message that anything is possible," Hamid said. "Then they interpret that into their local context." In Yemen, more than 1,000 people, including lawyers in their black courtroom robes, joined a fourth consecutive day of protests in the capital of Sanaa — a day after police attacked anti-government marchers with sticks and daggers. Human Rights Watch said police on Sunday also used stun guns and batons to disperse protesters.
"We will continue our protests until the regime falls," independent lawmaker Ahmed Hashid said.
Police separated the opposition rally from a dozen government supporters holding pictures of the president.
Bahrain was more violent. Security forces fired tear gas, rubber bullets and birdshot pellets at thousands of anti-government protesters heeding calls to unite in a major rally and bring the Arab reform wave to the Gulf for the first time. At least 25 people were injured, and one man died after suffering severe head trauma.
Police later used vans and other vehicles to block main roads into the capital of Manama to prevent a mass gathering that organizers intended as an homage to Egypt's Tahrir Square.
Social media sites have been flooded with calls by an array of political youth groups, rights activists and others to join demonstrations Monday, a symbolic day in Bahrain as the anniversary of the country's 2002 constitution that brought pro-democracy reforms such as an elected parliament.
But opposition groups seek deeper changes from the country's ruling dynasty, including transferring more decision-making powers to the parliament and breaking the monarchy's grip on senior government posts. Bahrain's majority Shiites — about 70 percent of the population — have long complained of systemic discrimination by the Sunni rulers.
The nation — no bigger in area than New York City — is among the most politically volatile in the Gulf. A crackdown on perceived dissidents last year touched off riots and street battles in Shiite areas.
Some protesters carried mock Valentine's Day greetings from a prominent Bahraini blogger in custody, Ali Abdul-Imam.
"Arabs have been inspired by Egypt and empowered to believe that their voices must be heard and respected," wrote James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, in a commentary in Abu Dhabi's The National newspaper. "It will make life more complicated for Western and Arab policy makers." Monday's unrest touched on two key points of Washington's Mideast constellation.
Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, one of the Pentagon's main counterweights to Iran's attempts to expand influence in the Gulf. Yemen's militant networks offer safe haven for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which has planned and launched several attack against the U.S., including the attempted airliner bombing on Christmas Day 2009 and the failed mail bomb plot involving cargo planes last summer.
The U.S. military plans a $75 million training program with Yemen's counterterrorism unit to expand its size and capabilities in the nation's difficult mountain terrain. Last month, the U.S. also delivered four Huey helicopters to Yemen and has been training the aviation units.
"What has happened in Tunisia and Egypt has terrified pro-Western Arab rulers," said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics.
"One of the lessons that the U.S. will take from current unrest is that the status quo is no longer sustainable," he added. "There are huge cracks in the Arab authoritarian wall. It's the end of an era and the U.S. must make very tough choices and decisions." Turkish President Abdullah Gul, who is visiting Iran, urged governments in the Middle East to listen to the their people. "When leaders and heads of countries do not pay attention to the demands of their nations, the people themselves take action to achieve their demands," the official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Gul as saying.
_______________________________________________________________
Looks like the party is spreading.
By BRIAN MURPHY, Associated Press Brian Murphy, Associated Press – 46 mins ago
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110214/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_egypt_s_spillover
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates – The possible heirs of Egypt's uprising took to the streets Monday in different corners of the Middle East: Iran's beleaguered opposition stormed back to central Tehran and came under a tear gas attack by police. Demonstrators faced rubber bullets and birdshot to demand more freedoms in the relative wealth of Bahrain. And protesters pressed for the ouster of the ruler in poverty-drained Yemen.
The protests — all with critical interests for Washington — offer an important lesson about how groups across Middle East are absorbing the message from Cairo and tailoring it to their own aspirations.
The heady themes of democracy, justice and empowerment remain intact as the protest wave works it way through the Arab world and beyond. What changes, however, are the objectives. The Egypt effect, it seems, is elastic."This isn't a one-size-fits-all thing," said Mustafa Alani, a regional analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. "Each place will interpret the fallout from Egypt in their own way and in their own context."For the Iranian opposition — not seen on the streets in more than a year — it's become a moment to reassert its presence after facing relentless pressures.
Tens of thousands of protesters clashed with security forces along some of Tehran's main boulevards, which were shrouded in clouds of tear gas in scenes that recalled the chaos after the disputed re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in June 2009.
"Death to the dictator," many yelled in reference to Ahmadinejad. Others took aim Iran's all-powerful Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with chants linking him with toppled rulers Hosni Mubarek in Egypt and Tunisia's Zine Al Abidine Ben Ali.
"Bin Ali, Mubarak, it's Seyed Ali's turn," protesters cried.The reformist website kaleme.com said police stationed several cars in front of the home of opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi ahead of the demonstration. Mousavi and fellow opposition leader Mahdi Karroubi have been under house arrest since last week after they asked the government for permission to hold a rally in support of Egypt's uprising — which Iran's leaders have claimed was a modern-day replay of their 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Kd Mousavi, however, have compared the unrest in Egypt and Tunisia with their own struggles. Mousavi said all region's revolts aimed at ending the "oppression of the rulers."A new U.S. State Department Twitter account in Farsi took a jab at Iran in one of its first messages Sunday, calling on Tehran to "allow people to enjoy same universal rights to peacefully assemble, demonstrate as in Cairo."
U.S. Secretary of StateHillary Rodham Clinton expressed support for the Iranian protesters, saying they have to have the same rights that they saw being played out in Egypt and are part of their own birthright."
In Yemen, meanwhile, the protests are about speeding the ouster of the U.S.-allied president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has promised he would step down in 2013.
Monday's mirrored the calls in Egypt and Tunisia against their own leaders who had been in power for decades: "The people want the regime to step down."
Protesters in the tiny Gulf nation of Bahrain are not looking to topple its monarchy. But their demands are no less lofty: greater political freedom and sweeping changes in how the country is run.
The next possible round of demonstrations gives a similar divide.
A coalition in Algeria — human rights activists, unionists, lawyers and others — has called protests Saturday to push for the end of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's 12-year rule. Kuwait's highly organized opposition, including parliament members, plans gatherings March 8 to demand a wholesale change of cabinet officials, but not the ruling emir.
"We are experiencing a pan-Arab democratic moment of sorts," said Shadi Hamid, director of research at The Brookings Doha Center in Qatar. "For opposition groups, it comes down the question of, `If not now, when?'"
But he noted that the newfound Arab confidence for change will go in various directions.
"The Arab opposition are using the Egyptian model as a message that anything is possible," Hamid said. "Then they interpret that into their local context." In Yemen, more than 1,000 people, including lawyers in their black courtroom robes, joined a fourth consecutive day of protests in the capital of Sanaa — a day after police attacked anti-government marchers with sticks and daggers. Human Rights Watch said police on Sunday also used stun guns and batons to disperse protesters.
"We will continue our protests until the regime falls," independent lawmaker Ahmed Hashid said.
Police separated the opposition rally from a dozen government supporters holding pictures of the president.
Bahrain was more violent. Security forces fired tear gas, rubber bullets and birdshot pellets at thousands of anti-government protesters heeding calls to unite in a major rally and bring the Arab reform wave to the Gulf for the first time. At least 25 people were injured, and one man died after suffering severe head trauma.
Police later used vans and other vehicles to block main roads into the capital of Manama to prevent a mass gathering that organizers intended as an homage to Egypt's Tahrir Square.
Social media sites have been flooded with calls by an array of political youth groups, rights activists and others to join demonstrations Monday, a symbolic day in Bahrain as the anniversary of the country's 2002 constitution that brought pro-democracy reforms such as an elected parliament.
But opposition groups seek deeper changes from the country's ruling dynasty, including transferring more decision-making powers to the parliament and breaking the monarchy's grip on senior government posts. Bahrain's majority Shiites — about 70 percent of the population — have long complained of systemic discrimination by the Sunni rulers.
The nation — no bigger in area than New York City — is among the most politically volatile in the Gulf. A crackdown on perceived dissidents last year touched off riots and street battles in Shiite areas.
Some protesters carried mock Valentine's Day greetings from a prominent Bahraini blogger in custody, Ali Abdul-Imam.
"Arabs have been inspired by Egypt and empowered to believe that their voices must be heard and respected," wrote James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute, in a commentary in Abu Dhabi's The National newspaper. "It will make life more complicated for Western and Arab policy makers." Monday's unrest touched on two key points of Washington's Mideast constellation.
Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, one of the Pentagon's main counterweights to Iran's attempts to expand influence in the Gulf. Yemen's militant networks offer safe haven for al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, which has planned and launched several attack against the U.S., including the attempted airliner bombing on Christmas Day 2009 and the failed mail bomb plot involving cargo planes last summer.
The U.S. military plans a $75 million training program with Yemen's counterterrorism unit to expand its size and capabilities in the nation's difficult mountain terrain. Last month, the U.S. also delivered four Huey helicopters to Yemen and has been training the aviation units.
"What has happened in Tunisia and Egypt has terrified pro-Western Arab rulers," said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of Middle Eastern politics at the London School of Economics.
"One of the lessons that the U.S. will take from current unrest is that the status quo is no longer sustainable," he added. "There are huge cracks in the Arab authoritarian wall. It's the end of an era and the U.S. must make very tough choices and decisions." Turkish President Abdullah Gul, who is visiting Iran, urged governments in the Middle East to listen to the their people. "When leaders and heads of countries do not pay attention to the demands of their nations, the people themselves take action to achieve their demands," the official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Gul as saying.
_______________________________________________________________
Looks like the party is spreading.
Do you understand what you're actually posted?
Disregarding the incompetent voice of the media, do you realize what is likely happening here?
Are you posting these things to chronicle the stories progression, to demonstrate that what I said was right, or because you actually think this is supporting the naively optimistic view presented earlier?
Disregarding the incompetent voice of the media, do you realize what is likely happening here?
Are you posting these things to chronicle the stories progression, to demonstrate that what I said was right, or because you actually think this is supporting the naively optimistic view presented earlier?
Now you're being condescending.
I know what's going on.
According to you
you're the smart informed guy here so you're the one to ask if you really know what's happening here.Events have not played out to your fears and fantasies.
It's the next part of the story and certainly not what you were predicting or expecting.
These people lead a poor miserable existence.
Life is pretty sad when you aspire to blow yourself up and kill a few people as a goal.
The Iranian government is a bunch of religious thugs and people are tired of the stifling life.
Religion is not anything to do with this here no matter how ominous your fretting.
This time the Muslims are putting religion in it's proper place.
It's not about you and your simple opinion.
To you this is all about Islam.
You give the power of religion too much stature
which I think is why you irrationally fear them out of proportion
to the threat.
At least I recognize something for what it is.
I'm not sympathetic to Muslims as my many posts and opinions have stated.
I you haven't figured it out yet( the reason for my opinion of Muslims in these posts) this is primarily because they and their extremists are very religious and I think most of religion is nonsense so we don't need any more of these potentially violent crazy troublemaking hotheaded religious people here.
Islam is religion taken to the extreme.
The more religious the less accomplished is what I see of Muslims.
Religion as a substitute for weakness and mediocrity.
A crutch for weak minded people as Jesse Ventura quipped.
You cannot tout religion as accomplishment.
We try to keep religion in it's proper place here but even here it's a struggle to keep dim religious types with religious platforms subtly touting God out of politics (look at how many fans Palin has) especially since Reagan brought the religious right into the republican party.
I'm more right in that these people are mostly powerless
and they're not going to be a real threat to our way of life anytime soon.
If you want to melodramatically worry over this change of events in the Arab world with your small simplicity(like Reagan who was a genius at simplemindedness and is an appropriate self selected avatar for you) then that is your right.
It's exactly like I expected.
You still don't understand what's happening.
Your speaking of Iran. A country that ALREADY experienced one of the "Democratic Revolutions" in 1979. The result of that revolution was the imposition of Sharia law and theocratic tyranny.
And now, when those people seek to overthrow it, they run the distinct risk of being slaughtered in the street. The Revolutionary Guard and other Iranian protection forces do not have the same reservations that the Egyptian military did.
A revolution in Iran would be great, but there's no credible indication that it's sufficiently organized or financed by the West. The likelihood is that if it escalates, it'll become a bloodbath. Whether international pressure would temper this is unlikely.
Your problem is that your ignorant.
Ignorant and lazy.
You don't want to invest the effort in learning about these things yet you have absolute confidence in you shallow, ignorance based analyst. And while dismissing what I have to say, you then elect to analyze it using yourself as a frame of reference.
My assessment of the region is anything but simple, though I've been reluctant expand on it in this forum because you have yet to recognize even the most surface level, obvious facts.
I have a very good understanding of what Islam is and what it teaches. I also know about the economic and social conditions that exist in the Middle East, South Asia, and throughout Africa.
And I also understand other global economic realities.
No, you recognize something for what you want it to be, framed by your narrow world view.
Unfortunately, your criticism of Islam is just a supercharged expression of your contempt for ALL organized religion. You're really little more than the embodiment of the broken watch being right twice a day. Some of the evils you've posted about Islam is absolutely true.
Unfortunately, your knowledge base is limited to the widely consumed, trivia styled, e-mails you've posted here.
The way you frame it, it would seem that Muslims are just really big "super-fans" of Mohamed. Like they are the Philadelphia Eagles fans of the religious world. That just isn't an accurate representation.
Again, this is another example of you using your bias to rationalize something you don't understand. In this, you're using this "supercharged religion" as an extreme example of religion stifling science. The inverse association of religion and science that you think exist, doesn't.
Islam's relation with science is absolutely different than that of the other religions in the world. To put it simply, while the judeo-christian faiths have traditionally embraced science, the scientific method, and the concept of an orderly universe, Islam traditionally did not. And the advancements made during the reign of Islam during the Middle Ages came about through conquering more advanced civilizations, taking their technology, enslaving or killing the people, and then destroying the culture.
As I've stated before, you're just too ignorant, lazy, and arrogant to have this discussion. You hate religion and think that lack of faith makes you appear clever. And it's evident that you view all of these events through the lens of that narrow prejudice.
In the meantime, you're "democratic revolution" in Egypt has resulted in a military coupe.
The dissolution of the parliment. The dissolution of the constitution. And look at this:
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood to form political party.
And, you may also notice that the other more secular governments, like Egypt, in the region are now experiencing 'revolutions' as well. Even wealthy, finance centers like Bahrain.
As I've said before, the apparent success of these revolutions will inspire MORE of them. And it's not limited to just Muslims.
It will start in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, and then, I suspect it will spread to to Europe too. How will you feel if these ancient cavemen collapse Pakistan and have a fully functioning nuclear military? How ill India handle it? And what will the 300+ Million muslims in that country do?
Recruitment in these Islamic groups spikes AFTER they experience successes, both because people like to be part of a winning team, but also because the perception is that Allah willed the victory and that Allah has their back.
It is possible that things could work out for civilization, it's just highly unlikely. And I think there are too many actors involved with an investment in this destabilization for that too happen. As I've said all along, this story is about MUCH more than just Egypt.
...right, because my problem is that I don't write enough
If you chose to ignore everything that I present you, why would I start over and represent everything on page 7 of a thread?
I've repeatedly sought clarification with you, you are heavily invested in defending your arrogance and merely coming up with a response, even if it in no way serves the conversation.
But it's cute how your try to mask your general ignorance and arrogance, your absolute inability to respond to what I have to say with anything thoughtful or informed, with a single sentence post intended to simply dismiss what I've said, repeatedly.
If you want a greater understanding, re-read the thread, now with the benefit of a little hindsight, with an open mind.
If you chose to ignore everything that I present you, why would I start over and represent everything on page 7 of a thread?
I've repeatedly sought clarification with you, you are heavily invested in defending your arrogance and merely coming up with a response, even if it in no way serves the conversation.
But it's cute how your try to mask your general ignorance and arrogance, your absolute inability to respond to what I have to say with anything thoughtful or informed, with a single sentence post intended to simply dismiss what I've said, repeatedly.
If you want a greater understanding, re-read the thread, now with the benefit of a little hindsight, with an open mind.
...right, because my problem is that I don't write enough
If you chose to ignore everything that I present you, why would I start over and represent everything on page 7 of a thread?
I've repeatedly sought clarification with you, you are heavily invested in defending your arrogance and merely coming up with a response, even if it in no way serves the conversation.
But it's cute how your try to mask your general ignorance and arrogance, your absolute inability to respond to what I have to say with anything thoughtful or informed, with a single sentence post intended to simply dismiss what I've said, repeatedly.
If you want a greater understanding, re-read the thread, now with the benefit of a little hindsight, with an open mind.
I have responded to your points.
I understand things well enough.
The Muslims talk scary and use their religion as the source of their power.
You play into that by giving it too much weight and dismissing their realistic weaknesses.
You concede you can't name a plausible way they could carry out their wish list but are scared of them anyways(perhaps of divine intervention? Ohh they pray so hard!).
You should pay more attention to current events instead of pinning your preconceived formulas to what you think will happen in the next 50 years instead of whats really going on.
We'll see how far these secondary protests go.
That's the beauty and intrigue of current events.
Does that pass for clever in your circles? Because it actually makes you look like an ignorant, arrogant, ass.
I understand exactly what they are capable of and what the consequences can or will be. It is you who insists on narrowly defining the term "threat" in some kind of ignorant 19th century concept limited to an invasion.
In fact, I've specifically avoided war gaming too far out in this thread precisely because it's pointless since you won't recognize the fundamental facts and events taking place right now.
There's little point in discussing how events in Egypt last week will impact Europe or America when you insist on framing things around your ignorance and contempt for all religion. How can we discuss the actual risk when you reject all plausible analysis of the region, analysis founded on both history AND current events. My view of what's taking place isn't based simply on what happened during the Middle Ages. Nor is it just what took place at the turn of the last century. And it's not simply what happened during the last half of the 20th century. It also includes the stated goals of the players on the ground right now.
Contrast that with your analysis that is based on nothing more than prejudice against religion and general ignorance, supported by arrogance and false confidence.
I do. If you were, you'd actually see that they are validating what I've said and implied would happen earlier, while it demonstrates that your optimistic view was wrong.
You mean the secondary protests that I anticipated would happen, fueled by the momentum created in Egypt? You mean the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood as a political actor, and only organized, funded group, in the coming elections?
The "beauty and intrigue" of current events isn't about being caught unprepared or remaining stupid. Particularly when they involve events that have the ability to impact our lives dramatically.
This is the challenge-
we can discuss this topic, but without agreement or at least consideration of the "fact" as I see them, we can't go any further.
If you don't even recognize the undisputed facts in Egypt, facts that were fist presented as speculation in this thread but have already come to fruition, then how can we go any further?
Your premise, that Islam is supercharged religion, is not credible. I addressed that in the previous post. If you use that as your starting point, you're going to reach false conclusions.
And if you also view the events as a rejection of Islam, you would also be mistaken, and inevitably be lead to conclusions that are false.
My efforts to narrow the discussion to just Egypt last week was in the pursuit of clarity and simplicity because I think it's probably going to be a good general model of what is to come to other countries in the region.
Again, I'm reluctant to get too specific when even the general concepts are being disputed here, but this is not a rejection of Islam. It's initially fueled by economic and social conditions, but it's not a rejection of Islam.
Recent poll just indicated that 84% of Egyptians think that apostates should be stoned to death!
So, you're idealized concept that this population is rejecting Islam and that the idea that the Muslim Brotherhood, the only remaining political organization in the country (that ALREADY controls 20% of disbanded parliament) won't be able to take power in a "democracy" (mob-rule), then you're mistaken.
The alternative is that Mubarak was replaced through a military coupe with another military regime. They've already dissolved the government and suspended the constitution. Maybe they'll have elections, but they will simultaneously have to violate the civil riots of dissenting, radical voices to maintain stability, even if the goal is to EVENTUALLY establish a constitutional democracy. And considering the atmosphere, such strong arm measures will result in international push back and greater civil disobedience and violence. It spirals out of control in either situation, in almost any analysis.
And this is just Egypt.
But you can't even begin to talk about how this is going to impact the rest of the world until you at least recognize such an analysis as at least credible and understand it and stop dismissing it. If you don't understand the players in Egypt, there's little point in discussing how it's going to affect Jordan, Bahrain, or even Spain.
“If Egypt Can Have Democracy, Why Can’t Wisconsin?”
http://www.thenation.com/blog/15860...ictator-governor-destroy-public-sector-unions
http://www.thenation.com/blog/15860...ictator-governor-destroy-public-sector-unions
It's about time.
The eqyptians are protesting for their freedom but these people want to continue ripping off the taxpayers.
Wisconsin is getting democracy. People don't want more taxes.
There is no good reason for public sector workers to be unionized in the first place.They work for the government(all of us) not the private sector and the taxpayers are the one's being ripped off.
The sweetheart deals slimy politicians and union leaders made where people can retire at 50 or 55 with generous pension benefits and free healthcare for life are over.
If these "rights" have been enshrined in the state's constitution then they will just have to be unshrined.
None of these protesters seem to realize that now there is only so much money to go around and (luckily) the states cannot just print more money.
Their pension funds have also squandered money with bad investments
and used economic models with rosy 8% annual returns (shades of Madoff)
There is no good reason that taxpayers should compensate for these losses.
They don't have any answers or ideas it's just we want our money and don't care about anything else.
The only place to find real money in america is to drastically cut the hugely overbuilt defence department that still seems to want to have it's cake and eat it too.
The Soviet Union collapsed over 20 years ago but we're obsessed with billion dollar pieces of equipment and some even want to build an extra carrier (and group) to burn even more money.
But since cutting 1/3rd of the defence budget is not going to happen public sector workers will be called out on their fanciful sleazy contracts that will effectively be cancelled and have to suffer by not being able to pig out on the public trough.
Unionized government workers have become the new envied class much to shag's chagrin(a development he still hasn't addressed when riding his social justice stallion)
It is ridiculous typical political spinelessness and corruption to borrow money just to give it out in wages and benefits.
Borrowed money is to be for investment purposes only.
Despite Reagan teaching americans that there is a free lunch and deficits don't matter..... they do eventually and the chickens have come home to roost.
It's only a matter of time before this public sector union model will collapse as it has started collapsing already.
Lets see what comes of this "big" protest.
I predict it will fizzle eventually because the party is over and there is no more money for government workers so tough sh-t.
Actually this is good for us and our interests.
All of Egypt's leaders have come from the military for the last 50 years.
They have sacrificed Mubarek and loosened up their grip for now so people will go home.
The government has all the cards.
The protesters can't extort the taxpayers and force the government to pay them money if it doesn't have any.
They can sue if they like but lawsuits take years and a victory would be hollow.
He can't stop this.
The monster is too big.
All things end and it looks like public sector unions as we have known them are on their deathbed.
But from death comes life.
A new beginning, morning in america.
a group of Democratic senators have blocked the bill by refusing to attend a midday vote and leaving the Capitol. The sergeant at arms was looking for them.
One member of the group told The Associated Press that they had all left Wisconsin in an effort to force Republicans to negotiate.
"Like Cairo moved to Madison"