and as for dembski
"What is the "design inference," and why, as evolutionists and scientists, should we care about the concept? The answer to the first question: a mix of trivial probability theory and nonsensical inferences. The answer to the second one: this book is part of a large, well-planned movement whose objective, I contend, is nothing less than the destruction of modern science and its substitution with a religious system of belief. Let me briefly explain both claims.
The basic tenet of Dembski's book is that there are three possible explanations for any observed set of events: regularity, chance, and design. Regularity describes such phenomena as the rising and setting of the sun. Chance is most simply exemplified by the outcomes of tossing a fair coin. Design can be found--according to Dembski--in biological evolution, cryptography, plagiarism, and the suspicious doings of one Democratic election commissioner in New Jersey named Nicholas Caputo (more on him later). Dembski then proposes what he calls an "explanatory filter" to determine which explanation correctly accounts for any particular phenomenon. The filter works by successive exclusion: if something is not a "regular" natural phenomenon, it may be chance or design. If it is not the former, it must be the latter. This kind of reasoning is, of course, quite trivial, and it was worked out in probability theory well before the appearance of this book. As Dembski himself acknowledges, the statistician Andrei Kolmogorov had all the pieces of the puzzle in place by 1965.
But never mind that. If Dembski had simply defined "design" as what in biology is known as "necessity" (Monod 1971), his book would have reduced to another case of somebody reinventing the wheel. Instead, he goes much further, asserting that "in practice, to infer design is not simply to eliminate regularity and chance, but to detect the activity of an intelligent agent" (p. 62). This claim is what turns his opus from triviality to nonsense.
Although Dembski cloaks his logic with semi-obscure (and totally useless in practice) pseudo-mathematical jargon and symbolism, the essence of his argument is easy to understand. It is best exemplified by his own treatment of the above-mentioned New Jersey election commissioner. Nicholas Caputo, nicknamed "the man with the golden arm," was charged with electoral fraud because in 41 elections he oversaw, 40 had seen the Democrats at the top of the ballot and only one had the Republicans placed first. The probability of this occurring by chance in the random drawings that Caputo claimed to have conducted is less than one in 50 billion. Regardless of the odds, however, the New Jersey Supreme Court did not convict Caputo because, after all, even very unlikely events can occur by chance. In the absence of additional evidence, the Court simply ordered Caputo to change the way in which the drawings were conducted to avoid "further loss of public confidence in the integrity of the electoral process." (Who says that jurists have no sense of humor?)"
"An important component of Dembski's argument is what he calls "probabilistic resources." Because the design inference is established on two pillars--the occurrence of a specifiable ("detachable," in the author's jargon) pattern and a small probability of occurrence--Dembski is faced with the problem of how small such a probability actually has to be before chance can be ruled out. Instead of relying on the commonly understood limitation of statistical theory, which recognizes that any probability level is arbitrary and, therefore, that answers in science are only tentative and always subject to revision, Dembski wants more, much more. He submits that there is an absolute probability level that can be used as a universal yardstick for inferring design: 1/2 x 10-150. How did he get there? By estimating that there are 1080 particles in the universe, that no transition between physical states is possible at a rate faster than 10-45 seconds (the well-known Planck time), and that the universe is not likely to exist for a total of more than 1025 years. 1080 x 1045 x 1025 is indeed 10150. The 1/2 multiplier in front of the probability expression is to insure that our chances of reaching the correct conclusion are better than one in two (a rather arbitrary number in and of itself, of course). The basic idea here is powerful: if Dembski can demonstrate that the probability of a molecule of DNA forming in the primordial soup approaches what he calls this "universal small probability," then life did not evolve by chance.
Too bad he missed the solution to this riddle, which has been proposed several times during the last few centuries, most prominently (and in various fashions) by Hume (1779), Darwin (1859), and Jacques Monod (1971). According to these thinkers, if a given phenomenon occurs with low probability and also conforms to a pre-specified pattern, then there are two possible conclusions: intelligent design (this concept is synonymous with human intervention) or necessity, which can be caused by a nonrandom, deterministic force such as natural selection. Caputo's doing was the result of (fraudulent) human design; biological evolution is the result of random phenomena (mutation or recombination, among other processes) and deterministic phenomena (natural selection). It is disheartening to see how many people don't seem to be able to understand or accept this simple and beautiful conclusion.
More than disheartening is the background into which Dembski's book falls. In fact, I find it rather maddening. I will list a few pieces of additional information and then let the reader decide if I am justified in inferring a conspiracy behind this book. Dembski's book is endorsed on the back cover by two people from the same universities where he matriculated. The inside cover comes with a bold hail by David Berlinski, who represented the creationist side in a recent PBS debate on evolution versus creation. And Dembski's list of acknowledgments reads like a "Who's Who" of the neocreationist movement, including Michael Behe, Phillip Johnson, and Alvin Plantinga. According to the book, Dembski is "a Fellow of the Discovery Institute's Center for the Renewal of Science and Culture" (CRSC). A bit scarce as an academic reference, no? The reason may be that the Discovery Institute (
www.discovery. org/crsc/index.html) is a conservative public policy think tank with the declared intent of promoting the intelligent design theory as "a scientific research program" that "has implications for culture, politics, and the humanities, just as materialist science has such implications." A document called "The Wedge," which has been associated with the CRSC, has recently been circulated on the Internet (humanist.net/skeptical/wedge.html). The Wedge amounts to a detailed plan for insinuating intelligent design and other creationist ideas in the public as well as the academic arenas, with the ultimate goal of overthrowing the current scientific establishment and establishing a theistic science. Dembski's book can be seen as part of one of the steps of the Wedge strategy.
Unfortunately, Cambridge University Press has offered a respectable platform for Dembski to mount his attack on "materialist science"--which, of course, includes evolution. My hope is that scientists will not dismiss this book as just another craze originating in the intellectual backwaters of America. Neocreationism should be a call to arms for the science community. The battle is already raging, and scientists and educators are still not sure if they should even bother paying attention."
there are many other scientists who have plausible reputations. i wouldn't back an arguement from him. some more of his faults
"For instance, Dembski brushes off a criticism concerning the reliability of his "explanatory filter" by noting that the objection is the problem of induction, but fails to either solve the problem of induction or retract the claim of reliability. That's philosophical humor, by the way. Dembski is not going to solve the problem of induction. That means that he should have retracted his claim of reliability. Just to be clear, let's see what Dembski means by saying that his Explanatory Filter/Design Inference/Specified Complexity criterion is reliable."
"Further, Dembski has never bothered to propose an effective empirical test methodology for his Explanatory Filter. Instead, it has been left to critics like myself to propose empirical methods of determining whether Dembski's claims of reliability have any grounding in fact. "
Dembski has, so far, not analyzed potential counterexamples. I proposed at Haverford College last June that Dembski "do the calculation" for the Krebs citric acid cycle and the impedance-matching apparatus of the mammalian middle ear. Dembski has not done so.
In other places, Dembski fails to take up the arguments of critics, as in Dembski's mischaracterization of a program written by Richard Dawkins. Two out of three of the steps that Dembski says characterize the program are, in fact, Dembski's own invention, appearing nowhere in Dawkins's work. The sad thing is that criticism of precisely this point was made by me in email to Dembski back in October of 2000. It would have been easy for Dembski to fix, but it did not happen.
The most disappointing aspect of "No Free Lunch", though, has to do with section 5.10, "Doing The Calculation". Dembski had promised, under critical questioning, to publish an example of the application of his framework for inferring design from "The Design Inference" as it would be applied to a non-trivial example of a biological system. Section 5.10 is apparently what Dembski intended to serve as payment on that promissory note. However, it fails to deliver on several points. Dembski does not establish that the example, that of a bacterial flagellum, has a specification according to the usage in "The Design Inference". Dembski also fails to enumerate and then eliminate multiple relevant chance hypotheses, as indicated in "The Design Inference". Dembski especially does not evaluate the hypothesis that the bacterial flagellum developed through evolutionary change; a curious omission given the context. The single "chance" hypothesis that Dembski does bother to consider is a marginal refinement on the old antievolution standby, "random assembly". At least, the technical jargon looks denser around Dembski's argument than I've seen around "tornado in a junkyard" presentations. But all in all, section 5.10 does little to help those who wanted to see how a design inference could be rigorously applied to biological examples. "
"My vote for the next most profound problem in Dembski's "No Free Lunch" is that while the subtitle says, "Why specified complexity cannot be purchased without intelligence", Dembski seems not to offer any coherent account of how specified complexity *can* be purchased *with* intelligence. Dembski seems to treat this as a "
brute given". Dembski argues that algorithms and natural law cannot "generate" specified complexity. By implication, any logical calculus that could underwrite rationality in humans or "unembodied designers" is also incapable of "generation" of specified complexity in an intelligent agent. This leaves us with only irrational processes in intelligent agents as possible means of "purchasing" specified complexity, if we accept Dembski's arguments and assertions. "
i think the things clarified here are what is needed for science to take claims seriously. finsh your thesis, and stop using it to back up fallacious claims.
then there's an experiment run that proves him wrong again.
http://www.lecb.ncifcrf.gov/~toms/paper/ev/noselection/
and finally
"We have interpreted the Filter as sometimes recommending that you should accept
Regularity or Chance. This is supported, for example, by Dembski’s remark (38) that “if E
happens to be an HP [a high probability] event, we stop and attribute E to a regularity.”
However, some of the circumlocutions that Dembski uses suggest that he doesn't think you
should ever “accept” Regularity or Chance.2 The most you should do is “not reject” them.
Under this alternative interpretation, Dembski is saying that if you fail to reject Regularity, you
can believe any of the three hypotheses, or remain agnostic about all three. And if you reject
Regularity, but fail to reject Chance, you can believe either Chance or Design, or remain agnostic
about them both. Only if you have rejected Regularity and Chance
must you accept one of the
three, namely Design. Construed in this way, a person who believes that every event is the result
of Design has nothing to fear from the Explanatory Filter -- no evidence can ever dislodge that
opinion."
sounds pretty arbitrary on choices. this is where he becomes fallible and unconvincing in his arguement.