Wow. Shag is on fire today.
shag said:Dynamic scoring is difficult to apply in practice due to the complexity of modeling economic agents' behavior. Economists must infer from economic agents' current behavior how the agents would behave under the new policy. Difficulty increases as the proposed policy becomes increasingly unlike current policy. Likewise, the difficulty of dynamic scoring increases as the time horizon under consideration lengthens. This is due to any model's intrinsic inability to account for unforeseen external shocks in the future.
Shag, we're saying the same thing.
As I showed earlier, the chart I presented is a compilation of historical data, data that is a result of 57 years of income growth history where each and every “dynamic factor” that is present in the real world that effects income growth had been in play, even those subtle “dynamic factors” (for example, people getting fired for cheating with the boss’s wife because she was lonely due to his travels overseas to oversee the opening of that new factory, or the retiree dipping into their savings) that analysts are unable to quantify for use in their economic models.
Furthermore, the notion that historical data requires “dynamic analysis” to fully understand it, or for it to be credible, exposes your lack of knowledge of the proper application of “dynamic analysis”. Dynamic analysis is routinely used to predict the future; what should happen if all things (both static and dynamic factors) that affect the future are taken into account.
The only difference is you are attempting to delegitimize static analyisis by claiming future behavior changes will have unpredictable effects, and only through dynamic analysis, where you are left to GUESS at how future policies, that have yet to be accurately defined, will cause behavior changes and that the resulting prediction of the future will be more accurate.
Johnny and I are unquestionably not talking about the same thing.
In this earlier post, Johnny is inferring that because a static analysis occurs over time (example; comparing stats in 1950 to 1960), and because it is inherently looking at society in the aggregate it includes all those dynamic factors and therefore is a dynamic analysis. This is an attempt to deceive through a false argument:
The logical fallacy of suppressed correlative is a type of argument which tries to redefine a correlative (two mutually exclusive options) so that one alternative encompasses the other, i.e. making one alternative impossible.Johnny's argument here is false because it deceptively and implicitly redefines the concept of dynamic analysis (a fact I explained in my last post).
What Johnny is attempting to do is to delegitimize the distinction between static and dynamic analysis instead of confronting and defending the methodological flaws in the static analysis he is perpetuating. In fact, that is the entire focus of his efforts now in this thread.
When that attempted redefinition was shown to be fraudulent, Johnny simply changes his argument (in his more recent post) to attempt to delegitimize the distinction in question in a different manner.
Johnny does this by setting up and disproving a straw man misrepresentation:
Johnny is incorrectly inferring from my argument that behavioral changes are "unpredictable" and trying to account for them is simply foolish speculation; a "guess" as he puts it.
The truth is that I never said anything about behavior being unpredictable. In fact, the inference from my argument was that behavior is predictable but that static analysis simply doesn't bother with trying to predict behavior in it's analysis.
The logical inference from Johnny's argument here is that any and every social science would be completely irrelevant. Understanding behavioral patterns, making inferences about behavior and/or making predictions about behavior is the ultimate focus of all social science. Johnny's argument would discredit static analysis as well.
In other words, in attempting to dodge the dynamic analysis critique by delegitimizing the distinction between dynamic analysis and static analysis, Johnny is implicitly delegitimizing the economic analysis he is promoting as well. This is a very common problem when you look to win a debate by default instead of honestly and respectfully confronting arguments on their merits of their ideas.
Both the sham and the fake inquirer, but especially the sham, are motivated to avoid examining any apparently contrary evidence or argument too closely, to play down its importance or impugn its relevance, to contort themselves explaining it away. And, since people often mistake the impressively obscure for the profound, both, but especially the fake reasoner, are motivated to obfuscate.
Have you ever asked the question 'why' they send resources overseas? Did you know that America is one of the most business-unfriendly countries in the world these days? Corporate taxes and regulations are so high and unions are so deadly to business, it's cost prohibitive to do just about anything here without a subsidy (see American carmakers). So businesses have to go overseas to survive. Contrary to popular myopic belief, businesses don't exist to create jobs, but to make a profit.it is the rich whom make lower-income americans recieve less pay, less benefits...not just the fact they could send their resources overseas but that Americans need money to buy products WE DONT F*CKING NEED!!!!!
Have you ever looked at your check and imagined how your life would be different if you didn't have such a high tax bill? The reason wages are so low and prices are so high is because of taxes. If the government cared about anything other than filling its own voracious maw, we might have more than just 1/8 of our productivity to live on. The fact is that through corporate taxes, union presence, and government regulations, prices are artificially high and wages are artificially low. Nowadays both spouses have to work just to survive, not just for extra money.In addition when you drive down the employee wage you also make the employee have to work more hours to be able to accomodate..hense then they don't need to hire more people but yet slave those who currently work. Then because we don't make enough we rely on debt..then we get into so much debt that if threatened with our job if we don't work harder or ask for raises that we bend over and take it in the @ss because you owe the banks...you have nothing saved...probably no 401k, etc etc etc
No, it's the government's fault primarily. There is no greed that even approaches the level in Washington. Anybody that would tax the very air you breathe is corrupt and doesn't have any business being in charge of us.American just have bad morals of corperate business. Ethics have gone to sh*t
My bad, I mistakenly attributed that statement to you when it actually came from the link you referenced. Which begs the question, if you don't agree with that statement, then WHY did you include it in your reply? Obsfucation? Ignorance?Johnny and I are unquestionably not talking about the same thing.
Shag's argument here is false because it deceptively and implicitly redefines the concept of dynamic analysis (a fact I explained in my last post).
What Shag is attempting to do is to delegitimize the distinction between static and dynamic analysis instead of confronting and defending the methodological flaws in the static analysis he is perpetuating. In fact, that is the entire focus of his efforts now in this thread.
When that attempted redefinition was shown to be fraudulent, Shag simply changes his argument (in his more recent post) to attempt to delegitimize the distinction in question in a different manner.
Shag does this by setting up and disproving a straw man misrepresentation:
Both the sham and the fake inquirer, but especially the sham, are motivated to avoid examining any apparently contrary evidence or argument too closely, to play down its importance or impugn its relevance, to contort themselves explaining it away. And, since people often mistake the impressively obscure for the profound, both, but especially the fake reasoner, are motivated to obfuscate.
Most people in the bottom quintile in 1981 were in the top 2 quintiles by 1988.
And it's also significant that you said "income disparities."
Why does that matter? If the standards of living of all American's are increasing, why does it matter if Bill Gates makes more than someone at the bottom of the bottom quintile? Do you deem economic policy to be more successful just because it's more "equal." That sounds rather Marxist to me. Is it the job of the federal government to make sure that our economy is under central control and all wealth is distributed evenly amongst all people? Are you a Marxist, Johnny?
Hahahahahahahahah!Ah - the boogey word - marxist - huh Cal... throw it around, add the quick label, because it is what you do best. This isn't about marxism...
Actually the real question here is, and if you go back to Joey's first post - is it healthy to have 23% of income (not wealth, that is a whole different thing) concentrated in the top 1% of the population?
Do you think it is Cal? Does having disparity of that magnitude equate to having a robust, healthy, thriving economy?
I am not advocating income redistribution or anything - no sharing of the wealth - but just as a number crunching exercise - does it bode well for the economy if this trend continues?
Actually the real question here is, and if you go back to Joey's first post - is it healthy to have 23% of income (not wealth, that is a whole different thing) concentrated in the top 1% of the population?
You would be correct, economic mobility within our society has traditionally been expected. Yet it's not represented in a static snapshot like the graph provided earlier presents.And I would imagine this also happened during other years - like the Clinton years, the Johnson years, the Eisenhower years... I would imagine it is rather status quo most of the time.
I asked a question. Your effort to create "boogey" words only demonstrates the fact that you'd like to run from those words and take them out of the conversation.Ah - the boogey word - marxist - huh Cal... throw it around, add the quick label, because it is what you do best. This isn't about marxism...
No, that would be a question-Actually the real question here is,
And while your busy trying to reframe this subject with your class warfare imagery, you may notice I did ask Johnny about that.is it healthy to have 23% of income (not wealth, that is a whole different thing) concentrated in the top 1% of the population?
A healthy, robust thriving economy isn't defined by the difference in earnings between the top and bottom earners.Do you think it is Cal? Does having disparity of that magnitude equate to having a robust, healthy, thriving economy?
The guy in the top 1% this year might be in the bottom 20% next year.I am not advocating income redistribution or anything - no sharing of the wealth - but just as a number crunching exercise - does it bode well for the economy if this trend continues?
Sorry Cal, I'm going to address Pete here.
Have you ever asked the question 'why' they send resources overseas? Did you know that America is one of the most business-unfriendly countries in the world these days? Corporate taxes and regulations are so high and unions are so deadly to business, it's cost prohibitive to do just about anything here without a subsidy (see American carmakers). So businesses have to go overseas to survive. Contrary to popular myopic belief, businesses don't exist to create jobs, but to make a profit.
If only you got as mad at big labor and big government.
Have you ever looked at your check and imagined how your life would be different if you didn't have such a high tax bill? The reason wages are so low and prices are so high is because of taxes. If the government cared about anything other than filling its own voracious maw, we might have more than just 1/8 of our productivity to live on. The fact is that through corporate taxes, union presence, and government regulations, prices are artificially high and wages are artificially low. Nowadays both spouses have to work just to survive, not just for extra money.
No, it's the government's fault primarily. There is no greed that even approaches the level in Washington. Anybody that would tax the very air you breathe is corrupt and doesn't have any business being in charge of us.
Taxes are high on the 99% of America because the amount we were charging to the 1% after the great depression offset that difference...because we taxed the 1% so much we had a brand new infastructure...we had happy families where only 1 spouse had to work.....people could buy new cars...without credit!!!!
I asked a question. Your effort to create "boogey" words only demonstrates the fact that you'd like to run from those words and take them out of the conversation.
No, that would be a question-
You might have noticed, you waited until page three before you jumped in to spill you rhetoric.
And while your busy trying to reframe this subject with your class warfare imagery, you may notice I did ask Johnny about that.
To quote myself:
There are two points here that you need to elaborate on.
1- what are the economic policies employed by Republicans?
Coolidge was vastly different than Hoover. And Nixon didn't have much in common with Reagan. So what are these universal economic policies your speaking of. What are the specific policies that you're referring too that are bad. And what policies embraced by Democrats (and there is much more uniformity in Democrat economic policy) are you considering to be good?
And it's also significant that you said "income disparities."
Why does that matter? If the standards of living of all American's are increasing, why does it matter if Bill Gates makes more than someone at the bottom of the bottom quintile? Do you deem economic policy to be more successful just because it's more "equal." That sounds rather Marxist to me. Is it the job of the federal government to make sure that our economy is under central control and all wealth is distributed evenly amongst all people? Are you a Marxist, Johnny?
How can you say you support capitalism and free markets, foxpaws, if you want the outcome to be centrally planned and distributed?
A healthy, robust thriving economy isn't defined by the difference in earnings between the top and bottom earners.
The guy in the top 1% this year might be in the bottom 20% next year.
The differences in income is not important. Using that logic, would we have a better more robust economy is everyone was equally poor?
If the standard of living were equally low, or rising equally slow?
Of course not. It's class warfare rhetoric.
My standard of living isn't hurt by Bill Gates making a fortune. And, it's also important to note, that while Gates may have made billions of dollars, he's also created wealth through out the society. Microsoft made a lot of regular people millionaires.
To continue the class warfare rhetoric, If Bill Gates made $101 Billion, you make it sound bad if he's hired 30 janitors at Microsoft who only make $40k.
And how many people work on his house? How dependent is his city on his nearly $1M in property taxes?
As you pointed out, there is class mobility in this country. Regardless how much Bill Gates has made, that hasn't reduced the standard of living for other people. There isn't a finite amount of wealth that he's taking a larger portion of either. The fact is, there's more wealth and the standards of living and quality of life has improved. What the top 1% earn or don't earn in a year has nothing to do with that
What is wrong with that? What is "unhealthy" about it? The history of civilization proves that social stratification in the area of income is not only natural but desirable.
No one here has yet to show that income stratification is, in any way, a legitimate economic concern.
While it may be an emotionally satisfying ready-made narrative to buy into, the class exploitation narrative is simplistic and makes no sense from an economic or social causation perspective.
Instead of attempts to prove the legitimacy of that narrative, it is presumptuously assumed to be self-evidently true and above the need for either a logical justification or a reasonable defense against counterarguments. No mutually respectful, productive discourse is possible in that atmosphere.
Yes. Yes. Strike me down from your ivory tower. Strike with your anger.the 'lady' wasn't addressing you foss...
How about taxes concentrated into a very small percentage of the population? I'm sure you're okay with that, eh fox?I think income stratification is fine - those who have and those who have not is just the way of capitalism. But, the economy can be 'healthy' and 'not healthy', we might not be able to do anything to alter the state of health of the economy - but to bury your head in the sand and just say that I am suddenly going along the lines of class exploitation is wrong shag. Our economy right now isn't all that healthy - there are many problems - huge government spending - foreign markets in a tizzy - inconceivable debt - but, is one of the signs of an unhealthy economy a lot of income concentrated into a very small percentage of the population? It has been in the past an indication of some sort.
Absolutely.Does the word Marxist belong in a conversation where the question really is is it healthy for 1% of the population to be earning 23/5% of the income.
The unspecific graph posted broke things down in Republican and Democat terms, and that is where Johnny took the conversation. Whether you care about that or not is surely quite fascinating to some, but of no interest to me.That doesn't ask the question of whether or not a healthy economy has the top 1% of income earners making 23.5% of the income -that is some weird question about Dems vs Rep. I don't care about that - just want to know if you think that having that percentage of income to earners is healthy... Probably can't answer that...
You live with an unequal distribution of wealth in a free market because it results in the best possible outcome for society.Or, is it just something we live with - because there isn't anyway around it?
You're now venturing out of the realm of the hypothetical and imposing a real situation, "right now."However, right now, with the income skewing more and more into the higher brackets, does it appear that there are only so many jobs that those 'income earners' can create?
It might be wonderful if everyone had everything from their ability to their needs too... There is no utopia. So it doesn't matter if it'd be better to have a more equitable distribution of wealth through society, any effort to do so by government (and that's the only possible way to attempt to do it) will lead to negatives and inefficiencies.Is that better - is it better to have more income at lower levels than to have a large amount concentrated in the top 1% of income earners.
The healthiest is the dynamic outcome that is produced by the free markets. And while that 1% might have over twenty percent of the income right now, in five years, they may be broke, or have falled to a different quintile.Not that we should create some sort of false 'leveler' but just as a snapshot of the economy - when is it 'healthiest'?
Not necessarilyDo 'healthy' times correlate with income being more spread across the strata?
Income is not the same as wealth.When the economy tanks does it seem like a lot of income in pushed into the top percentiles.