The democracy question - loaded?
Yep -
But it also is the question that should be at the heart of this discussion - and why the right is having difficulties with this issue.
I
don't know who your referring to when you say "the right."
No one I've heard is against the idea of Democracy in the Middle East. In fact, the very goal of the Iraq War was to influence the spread of representative governments through the region, largely in hope of preventing a larger conflict from taking place in the future.
That point is important, this issue isn't whether the "right" supports the idea of freedom in the Middle East. The idealistic Bush foreign policy demonstrates that. And, if I remember correctly, it was the "left" that was arguing that people in the Middle East weren't capable of Democracy and that they needed someone like Hussein to keep them under control.... a rather progressive philosophy.
The issue here isn't whether Egypt should have a representative government. The immediate concern right now is will a government that results from riots and then met with escalating violence and chaos actually be free and sustainable. It is possible but highly unlikely when you view the situation and the players on the ground right.
If this were a region or ideology that was isolated, this wouldn't matter. However in this case, there is significant cause for concern because the results have national security and global security implications. And because these riots are spreading thorughout the Muslim world, the lens of the media just happen to be focused on Egypt right now.
And at this point, I have to add so that you don't misrepresent me, this DOES NOT mean the U.S. should get involved and protect the current dictator (even before the riots).
There isn't much the U.S. or any country can do besides apply diplomatic pressure on Mubarak to have him step down and assist in an orderly transition. Unfortunately, as we sit, things are spiraling out of control. His supporters, those associated with his government are spreading violence while there are foreign political organizations pouring into the country as well.
Turkey went this route - didn't they?
No. But why make this a conversation about the history of Turkey-
it's only relevant if you want to discuss the Ottoman Empire or the fact that it's moving towards Sharia law.
Egypt, like Turkey, has had a lot of 'peaceful' contact with the west.
That's not necessarily the issue.
The conversation is about the political powers at play here. You've agreed that the lack of a civic society in the country will make democracy very difficult. And all political organizations, other than the Brotherhood, have effectively been destroyed in that country, the dominant political power following a government collapse will be the Brotherhood. And when they take power, they will strong arm the population as well- regardless how idealistic the aspirations of the people.
And something happened after democracy was established in Turkey - Shari'a was turned over in favor of civil law.
Again, you're not following the politics in that region.
Things in Turkey were never particularly great, they never were a country with much regard for human rights or tolerance, but the situation has deteriorated. The Islamists are taking over that country as well. And if the dominoes continue to fall, as they are in Egypt, I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey is under Sharia law, or civil war, inside two years.
It can only help to have another true democracy in the middle east. Turkey is a big thorn in Iran's side - I would love to see Egypt join in that same 'poking' of Ahmadinejad...
But is not likely.
So, how does the world prepare for an Egypt that is controlled by Jihadists?
What does Israel do when the Egyptian government no longer prevents the transfer of weapons into Palestinian territories? What does it do to the power of the Jihadist movement when it's now supported by a state with a population of 84 Million people. What happens to the Christians living in the country? Are they dislocated or forced in dhimitude?
And, just as I asked earlier, if you don't think Egypt will fall in such a manner, present a realistic scenario where that doesn't happen, taking into account all that we do know.